我的 2023

2023 年就要结束了。这是我第一次完全不工作的一年。令我失望的是，我并没有在我的计划上取得显著的进步，比如建立一个挣钱的服务，或者移民到加拿大。时间过得如此之快，我浪费了太多的时间，这让我感到非常难过。不过，时间总是在流逝，让我感到满足的是，我现在至少知道了如何生活。

在过去，支撑我生活的目标就是未来。未来你想得到一份好工作，所以要努力学习。未来想有一座大房，所以要努力工作。你想要未来更自由，所以要辞掉工作。一句话总是在我脑海中回荡："你需要牺牲现在才能得到更好的未来"。但唯一的问题是："我并不真的知道那个好的未来到底是什么"。是一份好工作，一座大房子，钱，孩子的好教育？确实，这些都很重要，但它们与现在并没有明确的联系。它们真的必要吗？我如何才能实现它们？只有我能回答这些问题，而且答案在不同的时间会有所不同。可惜的是过去我没有仔细思考过这个问题，我只是等待未来的到来。

这一年，我和家人一起度过了很多美好的时光。我见证了Blue的幼儿园毕业，她的暑假，以及她开始上小学的日子。我们开始阅读，包括英语和中文。我的妻子重返职场，多亏了她的工作，我可以自由地做我想做的事情，而不用担心钱的问题。Snow越来越大，会说很多话，也是一个大的麻烦制造机。时间是如此美好，如果可能的话，我希望能停留在这一刻。

现在，回头看，我意识到我大部分时间都没有明确的目标。追求自由，照顾我的家人，移民到加拿大，建立一个服务，都很模糊，他们只是结果，并不能驱使我管理我的日常生活。经过一年的探索，我对我想要什么和如何实现它有了更好的理解。

首先让我们看下，如何定义一个人（在社会中）：

- 第三层：连接 // 他提供什么，他在社会组织什么位置
  - 系统
  - 产品
- 第二层：能力 // 他能做什么
  - 存储：知识
  - 处理器：思考能力
- 第一层：身体 // 他拥有的
  - 健康
  - 年龄
  - 力量
  - 能量

中国有句古话: 一命二运三风水四积阴德五读书，六名七相八敬神九交贵人十养生,也是类似结构，从人能控制的部分倒着来的， 先养生，再读书，再靠命运。

身体

没有人关心你的身体，社会上的人只关心你能提供什么，也就是连接。但一切都始于身体。这是我生活的基础。今年我：

• 跑步很多，每周20-30公里，完成了半程马拉松，用时2:04
• 游泳，尝试了几次，现在可以做基本的自由泳。做完眼睛手术后，我停止了游泳。
• 做了眼睛手术，现在我可以不戴眼镜生活。
• 改善了我的饮食习惯。自从我读了《葡萄糖革命》这本书，我知道如何避免血糖峰值。从那以后，我变得更有精力。现在我午饭后不再犯困，身体状态更稳定。

我做得不好的地方：

• 睡眠，总是睡得很晚，尝试早睡，但经常失败。

能力

现在，我们谈论的能力通常指的是你的大脑的能力。这是你决策的质量，它支持你做出的决定。它来自你的知识和经验。但知识和经验是什么呢？它们来自你的阅读，思考和实践。当然，这部分的结果低于我的期望。

英语，今年我试图切换到英语环境，试图获取英语信息，看书，听播客，看YouTube，取得了一些进步，但还不够。我现在可以观看，阅读，听懂大部分英语材料，但对我来说到无障碍仍然有很大困难，我不能流利地写作和说话。

阅读

这一年我阅读了

• The Dictator's Handbook
• Control Theory and Scientific Methodology
• Cognitive Psychology
• Speed Reading For Dummies
• Runner's World, Train Smart
• Slow Jogging
• Atomic Habit
• Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
• Glucose Revolution

以及很多我只是下载或者稍微读了一点的书。英语是我需要克服的最大问题，我需要提高我的阅读能力。

思维，正如我在Moments中所说（我正在失去深度思考的能力），最近发现深度思考是我最缺乏的重要能力，我很难不依赖电脑，纸笔去完整思考，计划，分析一件事情。这很重要，关乎我是否能集中注意力，关乎我如何吸收信息，关乎我如何制定清晰的计划。

明年，我将努力提高我的英语水平并阅读更多的书籍（目标嘴中能做到是每周1本书）。

连接

对于家庭来说，今年对我来说是最好的一年。我花了很多时间和家人在一起，看着我的孩子们长大，参与他们的生活事件，一起面对问题。

但对于如何在社会中存活，我做得并不好。

我建立了一个英语学习服务，叫做Valid English。我发布了它，大约有一百人尝试过它，但只有几个人定期使用它。我犯的最大错误是我建立它的速度太慢，这主要有两个原因：

• 我的生产力太低，我经常被其他事情分心。这是因为我的下层结构不稳定，包括专注力和规划能力，实现能力。
• 我想要建立的是一个长期服务，没有一个明确的目标来满足用户的需求。最大的用户就是我自己，这个应用也随着我的英语进步来规划需求，这很慢。

我相信最终肯定能实现我的目标：构建一个持续有价值的服务，只是需要时间。少数几个用户频繁的使用，也让我相信它的未来。我现在发现这个App的能力，和我的能力深度绑定，我的生产力，我的认知，都决定着这个App的质量，解决方案的能力，方向。所以我需要首先提高我的能力（做App的过程也是一种学习，需求，心理，传播）。服务是这种过程中的产出的自然的结果。

投资，今年我把所有投资都换到了美股。并使用杠杆在债券市场上“赌博”，这是一个糟糕的决定，经过一些失败后，我停止了这种做法。现在我持有的债券（无杠杆）占60%，纳斯达克100指数占30%，特斯拉占10%。今年我获得了10%的总回报。其中债券现在是-4%（最高-30%），股票回报是20%+（靠这个才打正）。我对结果感到满意，未来将等待美联储降息。

我从中学到的是：

• 没有人能预测市场。每一笔交易都是赌博。区别在于概率和风险。
• 不要使用杠杆。它会让你承担过多的风险，并会改变你的思维方式。
• 长期的观点和知识可以提高你的概率。
  • 利率必须有时候降低，有时候升高。这就是为什么10年期债券是市场的锚。
  • 技术总是在上升，这就是长期增长的原因。

2024计划

在2024年，我想：

• 身体：尝试保持良好的精力水平。
  • 跑步，游泳，锻炼
  • 保证充足的睡眠
  • 养成良好的饮食习惯
• 能力：提高我的英语水平，阅读更多的书籍。
• 连接：照顾我的家人，与我的孩子们一起成长。
• 连接：维持一个稳定的投资体系。
• 连接：学习如何建立长期有用的服务。

生活就像一场游戏，我希望我能玩得很好，并且享受其中 😊！

My 2023

2023 is going to end. This year is the first full year that I'm not working. To my disappointment, I didn't make significant progress with my plans, like building a service, or moving to Canada. It's so sad that time passes so quickly, and I've wasted so much of it. However, time is always passing away, and what satisfies me is that I now know how to live.

In the past, what drove me to live was the future. The future where you will get a good job, so study hard. The future where you will get a big house, so work hard. The future where you will have more freedom, so quit the job. A sentence always comes to my mind: "You need to sacrifice now to get a better future". But the only problem is: "I didn't know what the good future exactly was".A good job, a big house, money, a good education for my kids? All of these are important, but there isn't a clear connection between these things and now. Are they absolutely necessary? How can I achieve them? Only I can answer those questions, and the answer varies at different times. In the past, I didn't think about it carefully, and I just waited for the future to come true.

This year, living with my family, there was so much time to spend. I experienced Blue's kindergarten graduation, her summer holiday, and her start of elementary school. We started reading, both English and Mandarin. My wife is back to work again, and thanks to her work, I can have the freedom to do what I want without worrying about money. Snow is getting older and can express what he wants, but also has the ability to cause more trouble. Time is so good, if possible, I want to stay in this moment.

Now, looking back, I realize that I didn't have a clear goal most of the time. The vague goals, like pursuing freedom, taking care of my family, moving to Canada, and building a service, couldn't drive me to manage my daily life. With a year's exploration, I have a better understanding of what I want and how to achieve it.

First, let us define a person in society:

A human's structure:
- Level 3: Connection // What he provides
    - System
    - Product
- Level 2: Ability // What he can do
    - Storage: Knowledge
    - Processor: Thinking ability
- Level 1: Body // What he has
    - Health
    - Age
    - Strength
    - Energy

There is also a Chinese idiom: 一命二运三风水四积阴德五读书，六名七相八敬神九交贵人十养生, which means 1. Life 2. Luck 3. Location 4. Do good things 5. Read 6. Influence 7. Good looks 8. Respect God 9. Make friends with nobles 10. Health. This provides a similar structure, telling us that Connections->Ability->Body is the structure that defines a person in society.

Body

Nobody cares about your body, people in society only care about what you can provide, the Connections. But everything begins with the body. That is the basis of my life. This year I have:

• Run a lot, 20-30km per week, finished a half marathon in 2:04
• Swim, tried several times, can now do very basic freestyle. After I had the eye surgery, I stopped swimming.
• Had eye surgery, now I can live without glasses.
• Improved my eating habits. Since I read the book Glucose Revolution, I know how to avoid the glucose spike. After that, I've been more energetic. I don't want to sleep after lunch now, and my body is more stable.

What I didn't do well:

• Sleep, always sleep late, tried to sleep early, but often failed.

Ability

Nowadays, the ability we talk about usually refers to your brain's ability. It's the quality of your decision-making, it supports what you make. It comes from your knowledge and experience. But what are knowledge and experience? They come from your reading, thinking, and doing. This part is below my expectations.

English, this year I tried to switch to an English environment, tried to catch up with English information directly, it's made some progress, but not enough. I can watch, read, listen to most English material now, but it's still hard for me, and I can't write and speak fluently.

Read

This year, I read:

• The Dictator's Handbook
• Control Theory and Scientific Methodology
• Cognitive Psychology
• Speed Reading For Dummies
• Runner's World, Train Smart
• Slow Jogging
• Atomic Habit
• Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
• Glucose Revolution

And many books that I just downloaded or read a few chapters of. English is the biggest problem I need to overcome, and I need to speed up my reading ability.

Mental, recently, deep thinking is the most important ability that I lack. It's about focus, about how I can absorb information, about how I can make a clear plan.

Next year, I will endeavor to improve my English and read more books(the goal is 1 book 1 week).

Connections

For my family, this year has been the best for me. I spent a lot of time with my family, watched my children grow up, participated in their life events, and faced problems together.

But for living in society, I'm not doing well.

I built an English learning service, called Valid English. I published it, about a hundred people tried it, but only several people use it regularly. The biggest mistake I made is that I built it too slowly, which comes from two parts:

• My productivity is too low, I'm often distracted by other things. This is because my lower structure is not stable, including Energy and Mental ability.
• What I wanted to build is a long-term service, I spent a lot of time trying and studying, didn't have a clear goal to fit the user's needs. The biggest user is myself, this App is also growing with my progress. That is slow.

I didn't believe that I couldn't make it, it just needs time. The users use it frequently told me that works. The service is the result of my ability. I need to improve my ability first (including publishing a service as part of learning).

Investing, This year I changed my investment to US stocks, and used leverage to gamble on the Bond market. That was a bad decision, and after some failures, I stopped it. Now I'm holding Bonds (no leverage) at 60%, NASDAQ-100 index at 30%, and Tesla at 10%. This year I got a total return of 10%. Bonds are at -4% (highest -30%), and stock returns are 20%+ which brought my return to positive. I'm satisfied with the result, and will wait until the Fed cuts the interest rate.

What I learned from that is:

• Nobody can predict the market. Every trade is a gamble. The difference is in probability and risk.
• Don't use leverage. It makes you take too much risk and will change your mindset.
• Long-term perspective and knowledge can improve your probability.
  • Interest rates must be cut sometimes and must rise sometimes. That's why 10-year bonds are the anchor of the market.
  • Technology always goes up, that's the reason for long-term growth.

Plan

Next year, I will:

• Try to Maintance a good energy level.
  • running,swiming, exercise
  • good sleep
  • good eating habits
• Take care of my family. grow up with my children.
• Improve my English, read more books.
• Maintain a stable investment system.
• Learning how to build long-term useful services.

Life is a game, I wish I can play it well， and have fun 😊！

A human's structure:

• Level 3: Service // What he provides
  • System
  • Product
• Level 2: Action // What he can do
  • Storage: Knowledge
  • Processor: Thinking ability
• Level 1: Body // What he has
  • Health
  • Age
  • Strength
  • Energy

Recently, I've been unable to focus. My brain is full of noise, busy surfing, catching new things, but I can't foucus on the job that I should be doing.

Yesterday, I tried not to use a PC, or pencil and paper to make a plan of how to write codes, just in my brain. At first, it was so hard. I couldn't even remember the idea that I just thought of, many other things distracted me. The outside world is so attractive, people are moving, talking, the metro is arriving at stations, cars are passing by. How is Blue's competition going? How will the stock market go? Will PCE go up again?

I tried to create some containers in my brain to hold my thoughts. They're rectangular box, I put the plan from top to bottom, first, second, third. The box is emptied again and again because I can't remember what I just planned to do, but when I tried sometimes, those boxes stick in my brain, what I need to do is so clear.

Now I know the reason why I can't focus, why the outside world is so easy to distract me. I lack inner thinking. Nowadays, I can easily write notes and sync them across all my devices, but my brain is exercised less and less, then I will lose the ability to store, process, and recall information in my brain.

#time: 2023-12-26

Yes, you read that correctly. Today is Tuesday, but I'm writing last week's report.

Last week was full of mess:

1. [ ] Service
   1. [ ] Wrote RSS subscribe feature, but failed to finish it. Just couldn't focus on it, wrote for a while, and got distracted by other things.
   2. [x] Started weekly communication with users.
2. [x] Finished reading the book "Revolution of Glucose".
3. [ ] Didn't finish the listening goals.
4. [ ] Slept better than last week, but still not good.

The main reason for this mess is that I didn't have clear priorities, just did what I remembered. When things started going bad, I didn't have a buffer to handle it. I have reorganized my priorities:

• 1. Push service to public. Build a service that can earn 6k$/month
• 2. English improvement
• 3. Health, exercise, eat healthy food, sleep early, take care of my family.

When time switches to these priority zones, I should focus on them, not keep other things in mind.

#hashtag: WeeklyReport

Mouse is a mental status invented by me to describe a status that I need to do a hard thing, but I'm not want to do it, i'm avoid to face it, surf the internet, do other things, but eventually I also need to do it.

When I'm in this status, I need to :

• listen a music that I like
• write down any thing I can to to make the goal more clear. or more near.
• just do the simple thing.

this week:

1. Kickd out by Xuan's English learning program. cause I didn't commit enough time to learn english.
2. develop Valid English App to v29, improve highlights, and fix bugs, and add a feature of dictation.
3. [x] Finish half marthon in 2:04 at Hangzhou.
4. [ ] not finish book reading goal. 50%
5. [ ] carefully listen podcast 2/3
6. [ ] casually listen podcast group 1/4
7. [ ] sleep goal runs bad.

Next week:

• perform better in Daily Maintenance program, schedule at morning, review at night, write down logs.
• build a App development pipeline. publish every 2 weeks.
• write english leanring guide experience. find resouces.

#hashtag: WeeklyReport

What I Learned from a amazing Person

Recently, I met a person who were professional in english. Her name is Xuan, She taught me English, and besides English, what I learned most is how she do things, which I think is the most important thing.

And now, I've been kicked out by her because I didn't meet her expectations. I wanted to learn English but didn't have the courage to commit to 3 hours of listening. Unfortunately, I had become the "Old white mouse" (老白鼠) in her words. It's a huge pity that I can't learn with her anymore, but I knew that day would come. I know I'm not a truly hardworking person, I just want to be one, but I haven't done anything once as a hardworking person.

The main thing I learned from her(or sense from her) is:

• drive by interest, purse what she like.
• extremely serious, do the best she can do. hardworking

Driven by Interest

We met on a BBS discussing English learning. She deeply pointed out my mistakes, and I started to contact her. She was conducting an observation program to see how adults learn English, and she would teach them English. So, I joined her program. She taught me English by having me listen or read books every day.

She is very good at it. The reason she's learning English is that she's immersed in the English world and enjoys it. She watches documentaries, YouTube, listens to podcasts, reads books, and teaches others. She has created hundreds of video lists on YouTube, read thousands of books, and listened to dozens of podcasts.

Her everyday life is full of English. She wakes up teaching English and goes to bed with books. We meet 4-5 hours every day, and she has other learners completely occupying her schedule. I once asked her if she ever gets tired. Her answer was, "Why would I be tired doing what I like?"

Extremely Serious

She has drawn an entire wall of pictures to help her understand the content of a book. The painting is sophisticated and filled with her own understanding.

She will watch the simple audio again and again, do the test repeatedly. When she encounters a new word, she will open https://www.vocabulary.com/ to read all the meanings, examples, and the context. ALL. She said, "Others get a rough idea, but I want to know the details. The gap between us is getting bigger and bigger."

When a person in her class answered the question, "Respond to a greeting when you meet an old friend," the person answered, "Just so-so." Xuan was angry and disappointed. She said, "You spent your time learning English, but why didn't you try to say more, just wanting to avoid speaking?" Xuan said she would never do that, "She will do whatever she can to speak, try to expose errors, then others can correct her."

My Thoughts

I'm shocked by her attitude. Recently, I've been trying very hard to catch up with her, but today I failed, and she kicked me out. That's a relief, but it's not a good thing. I know I need to change my underlying system, but I also know I can't change it in a short time. What I can only do is promise myself: I will be the man who is extremely careful, doing the best I can. But promises are cheap, aren't they?

I tell myself:

• Be extremely careful, don't fool myself, or I will be fooled by time.

That's all. Of course, she has given me much help in English guidance, like how to handle a conversation, how to correct my pronunciation, and how to train. But when compared to the attitude, that is not the most important thing.

What I should always consider (in building a system), especially now that I can't get help from Xuan:

• What is the goal?
• When will the goal be achieved, in my estimation?
• How can I find the way to achieve the goal? Can the current method be improved?
• How can I get feedback? especially real men's feedback.

Records

This section records instances where I fooled myself, serving as a cautionary reminder:

• 2023-12-12: I wanted to learn English with Xuan, but I didn't carefully follow the plan, didn't find an appropriate solution to manage fatigue, and consequently, was kicked out by Xuan.

Yesterday, I was anxious about what I was doing. When I remember the past year of my study and work, it was just so-so. Sometimes I could find something to pursue, but most of the time I was driven by events. I didn't do something that I was really satisfied with. I have wanted to learn English for almost 10 years, and have been running intermittently for 7-8 years. I didn't do it really well, things just happened to me, and that's it. No more, no surprises. This year my running and English skills are better, not because I have changed my performance or mindset, but simply because I have had more time to do it.

When I started to learn English with Xuan, I found that my problem is my attitude towards life. I'm a "just ok" man, and usually fool myself into thinking that I'm doing well. My English learning process is the best example. I know English is my most important skill, but I didn't really take it as the most important thing to do. Sometimes I watched movies, sometimes I listened to podcasts, and sometimes there were many other things that interrupted my learning progress.

Upon deep thinking, I know that what I lack is the courage and ability to face difficulties.

• Learning IPA is boring, so I just skipped it. // Hence, my pronunciation is bad.
• Marking is hard, so I'll just do it in the future. // Hence, I didn't get much feedback and help.
• Reading the book is hard, can I just listen and watch for fun? // Hence, I didn't solidify my English skills.
• Algorithms are hard, Machine Learning is hard, it's not about my job, maybe I'll learn it in the future.
• Weekly reports are boring, summaries are boring, socializing is boring.

I know I don't need to do all of these things good, and I can't do all of them well. But what about my dream? How can I achieve my dream? If I'm sloppy in all things, I will never get it. It's time to admit it.

This week

• I published my English APP, and received much feedbacks.
• Mainly learned English with Xuan, practiced pronunciation, and read the book.

Next week

• English improvement, practice pronunciation use RAZ, read books and listen to podcasts 3hours+ per day.
• APP improvement, fix bugs, improve highlight.
• Build service for beginner, find listen materials, and write guide for beginner.

#hashtag: WeeklyReport

Glucose Revolution

Glucose Revolution is a good book to understand how eat impacts our daily life energy and health.

This book is mainly talk about parts:

• what glucose is , include glucose spikes.
• why glucose spikes is bad for our health.
• what can we do about glucose spikes.

what glucose is

glucose is important for our body, it is the main energy source for our body. but too much glucose is bad for our health. this book is not talk about how to avoid glucose, It's about how to control glucose spikes.

glucose comes from energy from sun which is absorbed by plants. plants store energy with some forms, likes starch, sugar, and fiber.

all those forms of energy called carbohydrates. or carbs for short. Carbohydrates = Starch and Fiber and Sugars (glucose, fructose, sucrose)

As a human, we love to eat carbs especially sugar. but we never live in a world that you can get sugar easily. our brain didn't evolve to stop craving much sugar.

Our body will break down carbs into glucose. and the glucose in our blood will rise when we eat carbs.

why glucose spikes is bad for our health

When many glucose into our body, our cells's mitochondria will drowning in glucose, and release free radicals. too much free radicals will cause oxidative stress. that is why we feel tired after a big meal.

And there is a reaction called Maillard reaction. When we cook food, the food will turn brown. that is Maillard reaction. when we add sugar to food, the food will turn brown faster. that browning also happens in our body. and it will cause glycation. glycation is a process that sugar molecules attach to proteins.

The combination of oxidative stress and glycation will inflammation , a body's immune response, long-term inflammation will damage our body. sometimes you can see it in your skin.

So, high glucose in our blood will soon cause body damage, our body has a mechanism to prevent glucose's damage, it's insulin, a hormone that produced by pancreas. insulin will put extra glucose into storage cells, like liver, muscle, and fat cells.

Short term effect:

• Constantly hunger, High glucose -> High insulin -> Quickly drop glucose and Release Hormone that tell body to eat -> hunger
  • That's the reason why we should eat less, we should eat make body feel full but less glucose spikes.
• Craving
• Tired, mitochondria don't work well
• Poor sleep, high glucose spikes drop quickly, your body don't sleep well.
• Sick, after high glucose spikes, your immune system will be weak. case you Cold, flu, and other infections.
• Insulin resistance, pregnancy diabetes is because of insulin level is high when pregnant. cause of the need to grow bady.
• Hot flashes, night sweats.
• Migraine
• Memory and congitive problems

Long term effect:

• Acne and other skin problems
• Faster aging
• Brain damage, Alzheimer’s and dementia
• Cancer risk,
• Poor mood, brain doesn't has sensory neurons, it can't feel pain, but it will feel mental disturbance.
• Gut problems, high glucose spikes would increase leaky gut.
• Heart disease
• PCOS, Polycystic ovary syndrome
• Diabetes
• Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
• Weight gain, high glucose spikes will cause insulin resistance, and insulin resistance will cause weight gain.
• Wrinkles and cataracts

what can we do about glucose spikes

1. Eat vegtables first, then protein, then carbs.
2. Eat more fiber, much more vegtables.
3. Stop counting calories.
4. Flatten your breakfast , In the morning, your body is more sensitive to glucose spikes.
5. Sugar are the same, if you want go get it, if you can get it from whole fruit, that's better.
6. Move dessert to the end of the meal.
   1. “The best time to eat something sweet is after you’ve already eaten a meal with fat, protein, and fiber.”
   2. Don't eat sweet with empty stomach.
7. Vinegar can help lower glucose spikes.
8. Move exercise after meal.
9. Perfer savory over sweet.
10. Cover your carbs with fat, protein, and fiber.

Recieved my new MacBook Pro today, It's faster, more battery life, but why I'm not excited as before?

with hundreds of practice, and the help of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAHg7h80-KQ, I finally got the -lee sound.

the key is to make mouth more wide.

Today, I spent some time trying to follow the RAZ video to shadow read the sentence, but the first one sucked. The sentence is "Insects have many kinds of wings."

Insect, wings, kinds, are the words that I mispronounced. I corrected the “t” in Insect, and “-ing” in wings, but the biggest problem is "kind". Most of the time, I read it as "canned" or "cans" or "candle". I spent whole day try to correct it, but still can't get it right. all the words with -lee sounds i can't pronounce it right. like:

• simply
• family
• Actually

I always pronounce it as -nee, I had tried compare the wave form, shadowing, but it's not work, even my wife and daughter that can pronounce it right, but failed to correct me. Haha. there must be something is wrong, I will find it out.

Today, I launched my English app and received much feedback. I'm very glad it works without any major problems. I have many things to study and many challenges to face, but I will make it come true.

A Walk In The Wood

Chapter 0

The call of the wild

Bill Bryson was moving to a new town, near the town there is a path sign tell that there is a famous trail called AT, Bill call it the granddaddy of long-distance hikes.

AT was 2100 miles long, from America's eastern coast to Appalachian Mountains, Especially virgina protion across fourteen states, it's so wild and full of plump hills, looks very relax, most people will can't insist to go there, and Bill's town is the middle of the on the trail full of dangerous but attracted much peoples.

Bill give himself some reasons to hike the trail:

• fit after years of boring work
• learn from the wild (I think he is not really, he just want something to boast about)
• And global warming, the trail will be changed in the future, many lives was died. and there will be more in the future.

honestly, I think one the first one is part of his real reason, the most impotantly , he is just curious and what to try something new and special, especially dangerous.

anyway, he is decide to go.

Surprise from others

He heared lots of horrible(grue) stories from his friends, include bears, bobcats, poison, or get in trouble unconsciously, the woods were full of danger.

there is some stories:

• a men pee in the midnight swooped by a owl, the scalp was dangling against the moon.
• a snake peeked into a women's warm sleep bag
• campers and bears share tents.
• people suddenly vaporized by bolt lightning.
• tents crushed by huge tree
• swept away by flash flood
• shaking ground

and there is full of diseases with no cure , the mosquitos will kill you or let you stay in a chair. the virus. muders.

and it's was not all time in a year is suitable for hike, most people hike from south to north in spring。 it will take 5 month to walk the trail end to end.

it's a long way of trail, The AT is not the highest but it's big enough, with continous moutains. you can cross 50 snowdens just in a week.

the equipment

I have been learning English with Xuan (X^2) for 3 days. Every time, she gives me refreshing and new shocks. She is an incredibly interesting person with very high standards in everything. Studying with her is full of challenges, but the feeling of excitement and hope is so unforgettable.

With her help, I found that what I need to do most importantly is to get much more comprehensible input. It's not just about listening more, but also about building my high-quality transformer system.

1. I need to delve deeper into the scene, analyze the words and sentences, and try to tell the story in my own words.
2. I need to correct my pronunciation and try to use speech-to-text to check my story.
3. The more input I get, especially if it's dense and correlated, the easier it will be to learn English.

An unkown way may not lead to your destination, but absolutely it will lead you to a new world.

I met a fantastic person who is incredibly interesting. We chatted from morning until now. She pointed out my English problems very deeply, and she is very talented at drawing and exploring. She is very good at English and full of love for life. I'm so happy to have met her.

Begining today's work, wishing everything goes well.

Yesterday, I reorganized my blog and found that what I write about is shallow and fragmented. I should increase my output, write down the things I'm learning. That is an indispensable way to learn.

This world is filled with people who are more professional and greater than you. I'm so jealous of them. Why didn't I become them? Why are they younger than me and more successful than me?

Actually, I know the reason. I didn't spend as much time as them, didn't try as massively as them, didn't discipline myself as they did. I just wanted to do little and gain more.

Now, I'm writing this down, and I'll get some sleep, and fight again when I wake up.

Keep fighting, you stupid old man!

量子计算就像飞机，古典电脑就像汽车，飞机不会取代汽车

#hashtag: thoughts

You should never use local language subtitles to learn English. This is because your brain will force you to think in your local language. Try watching this video with Chinese subtitles, you won't recognize the vocabulary and will just understand the meaning in Chinese.

#hashtag: English

I should try to write summaries periodically. When I'm not working in a company, I don't need to write a weekly report finnaly, but I also miss the chance to think, review the past, and plan regularly.

So I decide to write a summary weekly, monthly.

Work finished:

• ValidEnglish APP now has concise vocabulary explanations and vocabulary encounters. This helps with better recognition of vocabulary.
• New blog features: 'Moments' and UI improvements. These help me write more.
• New blog feature: 301 redirects using git rename history. This allows me to restructure the blog freely without worrying about historical links.

Work not finished (expected to finish over the weekend)

• Generate concise vocabulary explanations using Azure API.
• Daily card, helps review activities of the day, brings recent memories back.
• Publish public beta version of ValidEnglish APP. (guide, announcement)

Next week's plan:

• Use best practices to connect with more users.
• Explore the best ways for office workers to use the ValidEnglish APP.
  • Short videos that they might be interested in.
• Continue to build my learning, promise, and mantainance system. Next week, restructure my blog about it.

#hashtag: WeeklyReport

A = Good sleep, regular exercise
B = Not enough sleep, no exercise, tiredness, stress
X = Eagerness to do things, doing it right now

A + X > B + X > A > B

In the past year, I have tried to make an effort to achieve A, but it hasn't worked as expected. Despite plenty of sleep and regular exercise, I still didn't have much motivation to do things.

I find the best way is to continuously build an environment to try to solve the problem that's on my mind. To build, to code, to write. Even when I'm tired, my memory is weak, and my brain can't focus, I can still try to nail it. And make some progress.

念念不忘，必有回响，比单纯良好的物理身体状态更能激化行动力。

Stew with mushrooms, vegetables, eggs, rice, shrimp, and beef balls. It's too hot, so add a generous amount of ice.

Finish a day's work, then go back home. See the beautiful sky with airplane trails. It's so beautiful.

#hashtag: life,beauty

The new blog is complete. The main features of this update include:

• Support for moments, transforming markdown code into beautiful messages.
• Automatic 301 support for historical URLs (parsing git log to find changed file names).
• UI improvements.

I'm easily drawn into building or fixing things, like repairing a water tap, keyboard, replacing a battery, fixing bugs, changing a UI. Even when it's not cost-effective, and buying a new one might be cheaper, understanding the problem and fixing it brings me joy.

The total cost is 3 days. I need to get back on track with the APP development.

Valid English

https://validenglish.com/

I have built an English learning app, whose main purpose is to bring the real English world to second language learners.

#time: 2022-11-30

Today i got a interview with Applovin, The headHunter said it's seeking a devops leader , cause Applovin is a oversea company , so i got try this job , maybe it can support transfer, but things goes weird , i see the position at email is devops engineer not leader, and the question in interview is very basic:

first is a coding test, write a function to implement loadblancer，giving some ip with ranks, i calulate the probability with sum total ranks, and use random number to test is hit in this probability, but i get 30 min to implement this function, maybe takes too much time , I'm so poor of algorithm test.

and then is question of how dns work, tcp udp difference, and what middleware i had operate.

finally, they end the interview, i thinks there is some misunderstanding of the positon, they maybe only need a experienced ops, and the headhunter said they need a devops leader.

anyway, thanks this interview, get me to know how online algorithm coding test works, and i have much more work to improve my express.

今天有个Applovin面试，猎头说他们在找一个devops leader，因为applovin是海外公司，所以就试了下这个工作，说不定可以支持transfer，但后面就有点奇怪了，email上看到的职位是devops工程师不是团队负责人，面试的问题很基础：

首先是代码测试，写一个实现负载均衡的函数，给一些ip和ranks，我加起来总的ranks计算每个ip概率，然后用随机数来测试这个概率是否命中，但是我有30分钟来实现这个函数，也许需要太多时间了，从大学之后就没刷过题了。

然后是 dns 的工作原理、tcp udp 差异以及我运维过哪些中间件的问题。

最后，他们结束了面试，我认为这个职位有些误解，他们可能只需要一个有经验的ops，而猎头说他们需要一个devops leader。

无论如何，感谢这次面试，让我知道在线算法题是如何工作的，以及我还有很多工作可以提高我的表达能力。

just rewrite my blog, added a new feature named moments , for post short message like this.

✿✿ヽ(°▽°)ノ✿

Copilot can not only help you write code but also help you write anything. I use it to correct my English grammar.

#hashtag: tools

RecordRTC is a simple but powerful screen recorder (Chrome extension), and it's free. I have tried a lot of tools that require payment, but they are not as simple as this tool and are too complicated.

https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/recordrtc/ndcljioonkecdnaaihodjgiliohngojp

The author is https://muazkhan.com/

#hashtag: tools

Read One Summer America 1927

This place is for record the book One Summer America 1927's reading notes. One Summer America 1927 is a book written by Bill Bryson.

I will note every thing that i don't know for help me learn English.

Chapter 0 Prologue

ON A WARM spring evening just before Easter 1927, people who lived in tall buildings in New York were given pause when wooden scaffolding around the tower of the brand-new Sherry-Netherland Apartment Hotel caught fire and it became evident that the city’s firemen lacked any means to get water to such a height.

In this place i have some unknown words:

• prologue: a book's preface information
• were given pause: were made to stop, here means
• became evident: became clear
• lacked any means: did not have any way

Crowds flocked to Fifth Avenue to watch the blaze, the biggest the city had seen in years.

• flocked: moved or came together in large numbers
• blaze: a large fire

At 38 stories, the Sherry-Netherland was the tallest residential building ever erected, and the scaffolding – put there to facilitate the final stages of construction – covered the top fifteen storeys, providing enough wood to make a giant blaze around its summit.

• storeys, confusing to story(stories),
  • Story (Singular): Refers to a narrative, account, or tale. For example, "She told a story about her travels."
  • Stories (Plural): Refers to more than one narrative or level of a building. For example, "The book contains multiple stories," or "The building has multiple stories."
• facilitate: to make something possible or easier
• erected: ED
• summit: here is not means meeting, it's means the top of a mountain or hill

From a distance, the building looked rather like a just-stuck match.

• match here is not means compare or competition, it's means a stick to make fire.

Two pilot

The big fire on the building apartment reduce the heat of Two Pilots, They are doing a legendary challenge flight, they want to break the record of the longest flight. also it's not only competation of personal, it's also some kind of competation between countries. America as the aviation birth place, now is behind the Europe.

About how they archieve this challenge, the most important part said by one of the pilot Chamberlin was control the fuel only let the airplane just stay in the air. The stay at air time is 51 hours eventually and far more than the record.

They had welcomed by crowds of people, when they landed, the 2 pilot was very thirsty, and tired, by the fault of the groud crew who forget to bring water to them, the didn't drink water for 2 days. anyway the flight is so successful, The New York Time has reported them and said they are very hope to fly to Paris.

AI拼命学习人类，人类拼命学习机器

2023-11-09 05:45

• AI不断进化，尝试还原Bytes背后的自然语言，信息，情感。
• 人类拼命尝试压缩，结构化，肌肉化基础信息。

高等级智慧，和新生智能，在今年陡然相遇，带来的是解放(more information decode)，还是更深度的压缩(more information encode)?

如果没有女儿上学，开始接受久仰大名的中小学教育，我不会对封闭系统内卷加速这个现象理解得如此之深，特别是今年这个特别之年，AI工具大量应用到教学，极大的方便了老师家长批改作业，一张试卷，几秒内批改完，可以想象随着AI的进化，这些基础的，结构化的题目，势必被AI所完全主导，刷题，刷题，刷题，一个学会人类智慧的机器人，拿着人类智慧成果对人类幼儿说，学！快点学！你们这群笨蛋怎么学的这么慢。

语文，自然语言，人类花了几千年，甚至几万年进化出来的成果，我们拿掉一些考试不考的，譬如背后的故事，能共情的关联，把最重要的部分编排起来，形成精华，做成卡片，读，背，用最快的速度掌握。数学，我们拿掉一些数学的起源，应用，巧妙的抽象，把最重要的部分编排起来，形成精华，做成题库，反复做，反复记，看谁最快，谁是满分。

如果没有AI，这一切没有看起来那么讽刺，AI把大学以前所有绞尽脑汁苦苦挣扎的题完美解了。不过人们还是有支撑点：“总得先打好基础，再有机会去做学术研究不是”，只是这个巧妙的逻辑背后掩盖了多少本质的事情，教育的目标？为什么我们主流是竞争式教育，竞争的产生机理，竞争带来的人性比较本质。如果忽略这些实际产生的本质逻辑，那么我们势必会失去改进，避免背后带来的问题的机会。

举个没有一门课，但是都会最终学会的《独立成长》，成年人经过多少个车里独自一人缓解情绪，深夜独自一人感受自己呼吸起伏，明白的一个道理：“人终究只是一个人自己活着，不要跟别人比较，做好自己是唯一需要做的事情”，但是放在教育上，却是：老师在拿小红花，排名，好学生来管理班级，维持积极向上的秩序。家长告诫孩子：“如果一个学习好，热情互助的同学，和学习不好，欺负人的同学，你选哪个做朋友？你如果想要选学习好的做朋友，就要自己学习好，这叫同频！”（来自小红书视频）。这单独拿出来说很好笑，学习好=热情互助，学习不好=欺负同学，但是实际上却是很多小朋友，家长的择偶标准，学习不好不要跟他玩，会带坏你。择偶标准虽然丑陋，但是本身却是符合人性，成年人也选优质邻居的小区，这无可厚非。只是什么时候去用心教教我们的孩子如何成为一个妥善处理好自己情感的人,这当然是且仅是家长的责任，只是有一个nice，鼓励，让一个人自由探索，而不是框定考题的环境，我会俯身扑地磕头感激。

还原教育

目前教育系统的危害是教育质量不断劣化，类似AI训练过拟合，解决训练数据能力很强，但解决新数据的能力很弱。

• 因：在高等级教育资源固定的情况下，不断竞争名额，
• 果：导致训练结果，无限向容易排名，容易刷题的结构化解题靠拢（AI擅长部分），剔除偏美学，情感，应用部分

而中小学教育更可怕的是，学习训练的不是全量信息，而是在考试大纲范围下的部分信息，这就产生一个很有趣的现象：

• 幼儿园拼命学习小学内容，小学拼命学习初中内容，教育出现超前效应，大量牛娃晒在xx岁就能xxxxx引来众人羡慕。
• 初中，高中反而停了，反复刷题，概率论，微积分，信息论什么？想学？不在考试范围，考上大学大把的研究机会。

其实要承认部分人的天资，解决高中那么点知识，绰绰有余，不然那些一年级会3000字的牛娃，一年级做6年级的阅读理解的娃怎么来的，但是因为封闭系统的过拟合效应。不得不停下来刷排名。

AI进化到这种程度，应该要承认，人和AI都是神经网络，没有本质不同，没有物理的壁垒了。到了接受事实，朝前看的时候了。AI时代再继续卷AI擅长的部分明显是不明智的，即使不和AI竞争，管人是独立长大那套逻辑，只谈竞争，目前的教育体系也过时了，聪明娃用AI做工具，跳过刷题环节，直接越级掌握更深层次的逻辑（社会组织学，概率论，信息论，ML等等等需要大量折腾才能掌握的相对不容易被AI解题的能力），反过来和那些刷题刷了18年，进入大学学了了好专业，毕业工作不是本专业浪费20年最能瞎折腾的时间的人竞争，怎么竞争？

回归人性

生而为人是一种荣幸，尤其是现在这个时代（甚至每个时代），看似AI给了这个世界重新组织的底层基础，实际上新的世界是更加内卷，还是更加的自由，不取决于社会怎样，而是自己怎样。自己有放弃旧秩序探索新世界的自由，也有拥抱秩序安慰融入系统的权力。

我们是选择探索，还是选择皇权，我们不是第一次选择，且每个人都有自己的选择，选择没有对错，各自心安就好。

只是向迈向未知前路的同好们招手，去TMD ABCD, 我就是我自己的神！在我活得地方！我是最牛逼的人类。AI的主宰。

Life is consist of many project with deadline, but usually people did't recognize that it has deadline:

• You only stay with you kids 18 years.
• Your work will end when retire, or company close, or find a new job.
• Your marriage will end when you or your partner die, or when your childs leave your family, or you just want be oneself.
• Your life will end someday you didn't expect.

Old is you Can't open new project, and your old project closed one by one.

So, when you were young, open as many as the project you love, take care of you projects, there is no in the future it will different, only the Right Now you can enjoy, you can change.

#hashtag: thoughts

读《Atomic Habits 原子习惯》 有感， 这本书值得读一读

自我修炼其实只是 加法，远没有乘法效应那么可观，做几分得几分，能跑了就能跑，能读英文书了就能读，也仅此而已，没有多fancy。

不是屠龙术，但是却是一切的原点，0x啥都是0， 1x啥就是啥，2x啥才开始产生量变，我自己觉得我之前很多地方都是0，现在也仅比0多一点点，还远没有到1，更没有到2。导致我做啥啥不行，英语不好失去会多机会，自制力不行卷不过别人，规划不行浑浑噩噩这么久才发现做了很多无用功。

好在0到1的过程让我满意，让我有打碎自己重造的信心和动力

#hashtag: book

What you believe determines what you do, what you do determines who you are, who you are determines what you believe.

believe that you are the person that you want to be.

then act like the person you like to be.

then you will be the person you want to be.

以前我觉得得到我想要的，就是定个目标，按计划一步一步实现它

我定了很多想要目标，基本都没实现，理想和现实差距总那么大，我总是自责自己自制力不够，懒惰，分心

到最近我才慢慢发现差距在哪里：

其实这些个目标只是美好的想象，从没有在我的心里真正的扎根，只是个愿望而已，许完了，该干嘛干嘛，有时候挣扎一下，过一会又被别的事情充满我的时间和生命》

我的生命被微博，推特，吃零食充斥，各种信息的，物理的零食充斥着我的时间，工作的时候钉钉消息占据了我大部分时间，不是工作就要处理那么多消息，而是我实在无法抵挡回消息被动处理问题的快速多巴胺反馈的诱惑，这些短的有效的多巴胺已经形成了习惯。而习惯是什么呢，就是随着你进行的越多，越自动，阻力越小，你越是做它，我是真的喜欢这些么，肯定不是，但是你说我能离开他们么，明显不能，下意识的动作已经支配了我。

打破这种局面的，是我有大量时间去和这些做斗争之后，新的时间空间，让我有余力去体会新的事情，新的事情形成习惯，让我逐渐的产生对比，“我” 这个body, 肉体，宁克凡，四岚，想要什么东西，我讨厌那种被肉体支配的感觉，在厕所拉屎都想要拿出手机刷一刷，偶尔想克制不刷，还是止不住的想在口袋里淘。

我逐渐发现我想要什么，我其实想要变强壮，我更喜欢跑步慢慢把我变瘦，让我能控制我自己的身体。我想精力充沛，这种想法开始对晚睡的习惯产生冲击，开始动摇那些支配我的习惯，我现在才发现有效的改变不是我设定了一个早睡的目标，慢慢去尝试，训练。而是我从内心深处，知道自己是一个什么人，我应该是个能跑马拉松的人，我应该是个整天工作不困更强壮的人。

当然这里面不是那么简单的：因为相信，所以看见。它包含了很多尝试，很多失败和成功，很多你自己的经验积累，这是一条：你是谁->你想要什么->你做什么->你得到什么 的探索路径。不用鸡血，也不用比较，别人真的不重要，这只是你自己一个人的战斗，有梦就去追，累了就休息，只要自己内心认可，往前每小一步自己都会满意。

你会发现你最不能满意的，就是你和你内心的方向不一致，身体和内心产生了冲突，产生大量的内耗，甚至让你绝望，顺应自己的想法吧，那怕你审视之后，发现我就是要吃零食，即使产生严重后果也在所不惜，那么最优选择应该是去吃。

如果你经常心里挣扎，纠结，这其实也是一件好的事情，这说明你的内心已经表达了自己，你要做的是好好听听它的声音，做一点你想要做得事情看看，慢慢这颗种子，会带着你往它的方向走。

what inspire me from this video is Taiwan Youngs' hopefulness and resilience, even in the midst of struggles, they strive to move forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2CK-j-pR7M&ab_channel=CNAInsider

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1F3411Y7vb/?vd_source=094e181c6a3bed77aef21259547b84fb 刚看这个纪录片，是从 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=db6kNqZ8iZY&ab_channel=%E4%B8%80%E7%9B%AE%E5%8D%81%E5%BD%B1 一目十影的速看找到这个片子的。

看完心情不能平静，想说很多话又好像没啥说的。

孩子过早的独立=父母的缺席。youtube这这句评论打进我的心里，期盼blue和snow能早点独立，又舍不得他们慢慢变大。

人都是需要爱的，想想我也给她们带来过很多伤害委屈，所幸他们还在原谅我的冲动我的生气，不是父亲这个身份给了我归属感，而是一起长大的陪伴给了我珍惜的动力。愿所有人能生活在一个友好，有爱的环境。

另外今天跑步的时候，有个单眼好像残疾的人叫了我一下，我潜意识感觉是什么麻烦，惯性的没停下来，走了100米心里纠结这会不会违背自己的原则——帮助他人。又犹豫大概率是要钱什么的有必要专门回去么。几经反复还是折返回去问下什么情况。所幸只是之前遇到过的假装困难要钱的，给他买吃的也不要。

我现在的思考是为什么有的人衣食无忧在顶级学区用顶级资源在卷，为什么有的人10岁了上不了学需要照顾2个妹妹还没有爸妈陪伴。肯定不是因为努力，说运气其实也说不上，投胎也只是表面，而是作为一个人类整体，无数人的集体贡献，造就了今天高度发达的人类社会，虽然这个社会有不少短板，但是已经让无数人过上了相比茹毛饮血的原始社会高几个量级的生活。这种社会的演进，互助贡献了很大的力量。

我们都是人类，生理上没什么差异，见识经验上差异虽然巨大，但是不能把结果过多的归咎为自我努力，更不能嫌弃，指责其他人。能力越大，责任越大，做已所能及的帮助别人的事情吧。

原来暑假是这样的滋味

生活是怎样的味道，不是你打开了之后才知道，而是你怎么打开，就是怎样的滋味。

Blue幼儿园毕业，小学前的最后一个暑假，以往都是继续参加暑假班，这次我有点想让它不一样，想去看看不一样的生活到底有多少不一样。

起初想来个意义深刻的d型自由行，日本->厦门->香港->昆明->贵州->湖南->回家突破下极限，几经查询带2个小娃娃难度太大放弃。后面选择回湖南老家疯玩，玩水，画画，玩游戏，种植物，疯玩。把各种能想到的玩法备齐，以带娃的名义弥补一下自己对暑假的好奇。

订购了游泳池,水气球，xbox, 秋千，各种画画工具，各种玩具。以及二十天随意挥霍的时间。

结果么，就是玩疯了，xbox上just dance，大冒险，疯狂的兔子，各种游戏非常适合小孩子一起蹦蹦跳跳躲躲藏藏，邻居家小孩，亲戚家的也一起参与进来让小朋友玩的很尽兴。

在农村水是够的，好打理点的有自己买的泳池，好处是好管理，随时开战。要水多点的直接丢小溪里。本来以为水枪会很畅销，但是实际上他们直接上了水管喷，水气球备了300个，不够后面又补了1000个，没几下就霍霍完。趁着大人们在小溪抽水，在临时抽干小水塘抓鱼可让他们见了世面。

麻烦也有，第一天就急性肠胃炎，上吐下泻，好在好了之后就没生病，身上蚊子的包包，各种跌打损伤的伤口，顶着三十多度的高温比杭州还热，不过相比于能尽兴的玩，这些过后都好像是不值一提的小事了。

而我拿着我的小kindle，终于刷了陈放已久的书。

生活

当我在这黑夜里码字时，有人在吹着海风望着星空，有人在写字楼里默默赶PPT或者遇到什么紧急的故障，医院里急诊正在焦急的抢救，在世界的另外一边，有人踏上了准备已久的旅行。但这只是我的想象。

我不在时，世界如此沉寂。

我出现时，世界如此绚烂。

虽然世界还是那个世界，而我的不同，就是世界的不同。

去哪里过暑假其实只是一件小事，想想又没什么不同，无非游戏多点，玩法多点，但是再想想又发现这是一段难以忘怀的记忆，可能确实是我对陪伴，团聚，生活离开太久。去看了很久未见的姨妈，和父母生活一段时间，和娃完全的在一起一段时间。以及看到许久未见的清澈星空，让我这么怀念。

生活，好久不见。所幸再见。

The benifit of do multiple things is:

1. Keep energy, when I do one thing, I will soon tired and get bored of it. multiple thing use multi part of my body , so I will use my body efficiently.
2. Learning one thing from another, Example: when I study how to kick leg in swimming , I finally got the reason that why my front leg sored. I focus my shin to move , but it's the minimum part of my leg muscle. when I focus on how to lift my leg, I used my hip to carry the muscle to move. then the shin sore goes away.

Every little boy that was refused by his short and thin body, may became the world champion of football in the future —— with respect to Messi

不管做不做，外界照样转 不管做什么，外界照样说

我改变不了外界，但是可以改变我自己 每一次的行动，都是下一次行动的垫脚石， 在这一次，我克服了恐惧，我克服了担心， 为下一次，积累了一点力量

这力量让我安定，让我相信自己，这就够了。

为每个敢想敢做的人开心，希望这是未来的自己 为每个敢想不敢做的人支持，做梦是自己行动的第一步 为每个不敢想不敢做的人尊重，世界需要可以不做的自由

为每个diss别人做梦的人惋惜，diss or 不diss 世界还是那样蓬勃发展，而diss为自己设下了一道栅栏，强化了自己的人设立场，降低了更多的可能。

life is a experience, thanks for what I experienced, pity what I didn't tried.

人生终究只是自己经历的总和，和太多人来来往往交集一段又各奔远方，所幸我之过往，不幸我所未尝。愿未来随心所欲，愿未来同好欢畅。

谨慎训练自己，认真照顾家人，善意对待他人。

Culture bring us together. when Taipei sing the lyric of "河北师大附中(The Middle School Attached To HeBei Normal University)", its a tearful moment.

slan's invest log 2023-06-09 (#3 profit is meaningless if its not stable)

When I reviewed my invest history, my most profitable investment wasn't one that yields 100%+ profit , but rather a boring one QQQ(NASDQ-100 index).It's easy to talk about the importance of slow and steady gains, but it's not always easy to resist the temptation of easy money. I used to say that "slow if fast", but when I found out how easy it was to earn 20% with leverge, I went all in with leverage, but the reality is that the marktet is fair, I couldn't earn more beyond my knowledge.

I have come to realized the improtance of STABLE GROWTH, their is an old idiom that says "守正出奇" (maintain the traditional while seeking innovation) emphasizing the importance of maintaining traditional values while also exploring new ideas. The most important aspect of this idiom is 守正 (maintain the traditional), rather than solely seeking innovation. You may lose everthing if you only seek a new way, but if you foucus on do the regular thing right , you can become a good survivaler.

this week

• TLT from 101.35 to 101.92 up trend but weak. low than previous week
• QQQ from 354.43 to 353.15 down trending, buy in 352
• BTFP still raising from 93B TO 100B, banks pressure still exist.
• TGA from 49B TO 45B , Treasury not began refill the TGA account. but "Treasury now expects that its cash balance will be approximately $425 billion at the end of June." their is 400B selling pressure in next 2 weeks.
• Unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%, Initial Jobless Claims 266k high than expected. but Continuing Jobless Claims is low than expected and previous week.
• Crude Oil Imports high than expected.
• Services PMI (May)54.9, high than previous month, low than expected.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Treasury Security holds from 1518B to 1531B, banks is stable and not selling bonds.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Deposits from 17235B to 17283B, banks is stable in total.

us economic is still in hot, and didn't see signal of recession.

events:

• Canada raise interest rates unexpectedly in Wendnesday, cause TLT price decline. the economic return hot when Canada stop hike rates.

strategy

now position:

next:

• holding QQQ and ZROZ , wait more datas.
• short holding TMV (15%), wait bonds goes down.

walk between desperate and hopeful. Keep trying, Nerver ever give up!

slan's invest log 2023-06-02 (#2 Good investment make you growth)

This week I sold all the leveraged ETF, holding cash and start to systematic investmen Bonds(ZROZ) and Index ETF(QQQ,VOO). Now Position: |quote|percent| |---|----| |ZROZ|25%| |QQQ|0%| |VOO|0%| |CASH|75%|

bonds

bonds price rose 3% in the last week, here is the main reason:

1. Bank system goes steady now, the BTFB rose slowly not surge.
2. FED is neutral, not sell not buy.
3. stock is cold early but goes hot in friday.
4. treasury debt ceiling crisis is solved. treasury will release much more T-bills in weeks.
5. Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous

So the price goes high mainly cause of risk aversion, but when the stock goes higher, and treasury release bills pressure is coming the bonds price declined. I think bonds price is continue to decline next week, it's a chance to buy it.

About Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous some people think there will be some data error or maluplation. Here is a metaphor: The reason for massive travellers at the airport can be BAD WEATHER or the HOT TRAVELLING SEASON. I see the employment market is still hot, but the economic is slow down, and we will see more cold evidence in future.

good investment make you growth

good investment make you growth, bad investment consume yourself. previously I bought leveraged bonds, want to be rich quickly, but the truth is you will get more sometimes, but in long time it will all return back. and you will need to pay the cost. the cost of my recently 2 month is not good sleep, spent much time in monitor the price, and lost the time to study and try providing my independent service.

I could laydown lying flat, bonds will goes up in next 6 month, and QQQ goes up 30% in this year. the only thing I need to waiting, and I will have much time to do other things.

But the greedy and trust I'm lucky make me use the leverage, when profited, it's make me more irrational, when lost, it's make me more fear and sold out. in total I cost more time and not gain more. so it's a bad investment.

So this week I'm holding cash, lying flat, waiting the chance. embaracing the life again.

strategy

• buy bonds to 70% .
• 30% investment QQQ when lower position.

slan的投资周报2023-05-26(#1 开始记录我的投资)

当我在四月买入TMF债券ETF时,我打开了一扇新世界的投资之门,我曾多次因损失金钱和压力而放弃,但最终坚持了下来。所以现在,我想跟随自己的心认真对待它。我将每周记录我的想法,行动和结果,以帮助我更好地整理思路并避免冲动行事。

今天,我会说一下:

• 我在四月和五月的交易历史
• 我是否获利?
• 我学到什么
• 我下一步如何行动

历史

3月15日,由于对中国经济失去信心,我卖出了小米和阿里巴巴股票,当时我相信这也是美联储停止加息的时机,所以我开始买入长期债券ETF,幸运的是,我在2周内获利15%以上,这给了我很大信心,让我相信可以赚得更多利润,这就是悲剧的开始。

随着时间推移到5月,债券价格开始波动,我简单的策略是在债券开始复苏时买入TMF,太高时卖空,这点不再有效,这时,我学会了如何分析趋势,我学习了线性回归,并用Pandas和Matplotlib画出价格趋势图。

我穷举了所有买卖参数来寻找能赚钱的神奇参数。最有意思的部分是,当我造了bug时,发现2年内就能回报100倍。我开始担心如何花费这么多钱。但是,事实是这只是bug或者并没有每次买入最低价的机会。当我修复了这些错误后,2年内的回报率只有2倍。当我在更长的时间内测试它时,我很快意识到这会导致更多损失。

5月中旬,债券价格下跌10%,我一直死扛等反弹。然而,在仔细分析美联储和经济数据后,我意识到由于通胀和繁荣的经济,债券价格将进一步下跌。所以我承担损失并开始卖空债券,这帮助我赚回一些钱。然而,我仍然损失了大量资金。

债券需求供应曲线: 美联储的运行:

现在,所有靠运气来的利润，已经被我的能力归0。^_^

从失败中学习

• 没想清楚不要动,我损失最多的就是来自FOMO（担心没赶上机会）或恐惧情绪。
• 学习从失败中吸取教训,接受我是愚蠢的,我需要更多学习。经济原理是测量和分析市场的最佳工具。
• 不要追求高点,也不要押注底部,在下跌趋势中更低意味着更低。
• 找到可能性。使用数学和经济模型来测试和验证它。模型是您继续盈利的唯一方式。
• 不要在上面花太多时间,价格由逻辑决定,而不是您花费的时间,所以我后面不会监控价格,只在第二天review和每周分析报告。
• 别加杠杆，它会放大贪婪，放大恐惧，让你的动作变形。

下一步行动

周五,债券价格停止下跌,债务上限达成协议,银行存款看起来停止下降。所以我需要仔细看看趋势。

好消息:

• 通胀率仍然较高,周五的PCE高于预期。
• 债务上限达成协议,财政部将在未来几周发行更多T-bills。风险规避风险消失。

坏消息:

• 周五收益率大幅下降,即使PCE数据不理想。这表明高看涨情绪。
• GDI数据指向衰退。
• 海外投资机构持有更多债券。
• 银行体系现在看起来稳定了。债券卖压正在缓解。

所以我将在周二看价格,

• 如果收益率继续下降,我会止损,并关注6月15日的FOMC会议。
• 如果收益率上升,我会在130美元卖出TMV。

长期计划:

• 迭代美国长期债券投资模型。
• 定期投资纳斯达克100指数(这是这几年唯一不坑我的标的了)。

slan's invest log 2023-05-26 (#1 Start to logging my investment)

中文版CN version

When I bought the TMF bonds ETF at April, I opened a new world of financial investment, I had given up several times due to money losses and pressure, but i eventually persisted . So now, I want to follow my heart and take it seriously. I will log my thoughts and my action and the result every week, for help me better sort my thoughts and avoid impluse action.

Today, I will talk about:

1. my trade history in April and May
2. did I profited?
3. what I learned
4. how will I do next

History

On March 15th, I sold my Xiaomi and Baba stocks due to lost confidence in the Chinese economic, at that time I belived it was also the right moment for the FED to stop interest rate hike, so i started buying long-term Bonds ETF, fortunately i made a profit of 15%+ in 2 weeks. which give me much confidence and belive I can make even more profits, that was the beginning of the tragedy.

As time moving to May, the bonds price began to fluctuate, my simple strategy of buy TMF when bonds start to recover, and shorting it when too high was no longer effective , at this point, i learned how to analyze the trending, i learned Linear Regression, and use Pandas and Matplotlib to plot price trending.

I exhaustion all possible actions trying to find a magic parameter that could earn money. Te most interesting part was when I made some bugs or errors while estimating the possibility of a buying opportunity, I saw a massive profit possibility, it's return 100x in juset 2 years. I started worry about how i could spent so much money. Howerver the truth was that it's just a bug or a mistake. and there was no chance of buying at the lowest price every time. When I fixed those bugs, it turned out to be only a 2x return in two years. When I tested it over a longer period of time, I soon realized that it would lead to further losses.

In the middle of May, bond prices lost 10%, and I waited for a rebound. However, after carefully analyzing the Fed and economic data, I realized that bond prices were going to drop even further due to inflation and a hot economy. So I took the loss and started to short bonds, which helped me make some money back. However, I still lost a significant amount.

bonds demands supply curve:

the Fed's mechanism:

Now , all the profit comes from lucky, wiped out by my ability.^_^

Learn from failures

1. Don't move when I'm not thinking clearly, My most lost is from FOMO or fear mood.
2. Learning from failures, accept that i'm foolish, I need much learning. the economic principle is the best tools to measure and analyze the market.
3. Don't chase high. and don't bet bottom, in downside trending lower is most meaning more lower.
4. Find prossibility. use math and economic model to test and verify it . the model is the only way you can conitnue to profit.
5. Don't spent much time on it, the price determined by logic ,not time you spent, so I will not monitor the price , only review at next day and write weekly report.
6. Don't use leverage, it will enlarge the greedy and enlarge the fear.

Next action

Bonds price stop decline at Friday, and debt ceiling is reach deal, and the bank deposit looks like stop decrease. so I need to carefully look at the trending.

the good news:

• Inflation is still high , PCE in Friday is high than expectation.
• Debt ceiling is reach deal, treasury will release much more T-bills in weeks. Risk Aversion risk is disappear.

bad news:

• Friday yield is going down much, even PCE data is not good. it's present high long mood.
• GDI data point to recession.
• Foreign holds is holding more bonds.
• bank system looks like steady now. the bonds sell pressure is easing.

so I will look at Tuesday price ,

• if yield still going down , I will take lost, and look at 15 June's FOMC meeting.
• if yield goes up, I will sell TMV @130

long term plan:

• model for invesment US long-term bonds.
• regularly invest NASDAQ-100

1. Bank borrow from FED through BTFP is rise:

2. They are selling Theasury Securities.(data updates at 2023-05-02, but base on recent days Bonds yields rise, and deposit decline, I think they are continue selling to make liquidity deposit.)

So I guess, the bank crisis is going to emerge again in the nearly future. the Bonds price will going down in short time (cause the banks need sold their bonds to get liquidity) , but when the bank crisis is unmanageable. the fed is going ease rate, the Bonds price will get a good chance to go up.

心似已灰之木，身如不系之舟

问汝平生功业，黄州惠州儋州

我们的国家，我们的民族，我们的历史发生了太多因为战争而生灵涂炭，骨肉分离的悲剧，我讨厌任何的战争，暴力。我会:

1. 尽我所能去避开暴力，
2. 尽我所能去减少仇恨，先让我自己善待他人，善待自己，坚持立场，帮助需要帮助的人

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd4eL_48Ww0&ab_channel=CNEWS%E5%8C%AF%E6%B5%81%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E7%B6%B2

2023 US treasury bonds timeline

timeline
    title Bond Events Timeline 2023
    1.19: Initial Jobless Claims not meet expectations
    2.1: Fed hike 25bps to target 4.50-4.75%
    2.3: Nonfarm Payrolls not meet expectations
        : Bonds yield rose↑
    2.14: CPI exceeds expectations
    3.2 : Fed hike 25bps to target 4.75-5.00%
    3.8 : Powell speak monetary policy, inflation is stuborn but not mentioned hike 50 bps.
        : SVB crisis
    3.12: SVB broken solution comes out
    3.14 : CPI show inflation slow down,but core CPI stubbornly unchanged
    3.30 : Initial Jobless Claims not meet expectations
    4.4 : OPEC ruduce oil production
    4.7 : Nonfarm Payrolls not meet expectations
    4.21 : PMI exceeds expectations

The Fed(Federal Reserve System)

this is my learning record of

• Understand the Federal Reserve Board

architecture:

• Main Goal:
  • Sustainable Growth (economic growth)
  • and stable prices (low inflation)
• Monetary policy tools
  • Open market Operation
  • Discount Rates
  • Reserve Requirements
  • Forward guidance
  • Quantitative easing and Quantitative tightening

How Fed works:

Yesterday US Flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI comes in above expectation, services PMI expected 51.5 Actual=53.7, Bond yield goes high, price down. TLT plunge 0.6%.

economic hot means inflation stubbornly continues, that's make the investor who expect FED quickly cut interest rate disappointed and leave bond market.

updated logic link

2023-04-19 Linear regression

Linear regression is a powerful and easy tool to analyisis market, It's solve the problem of that when use Moving Average to predict price probability. it's direction is old than market, only when turn point has happened , the Moving Average turn can be happen.

but with Linear regression slope, you can see the slope become more and more high and when it's high probability can't be true, the turn point will be high probability happen. slope change before price trending change. so it's a useful tool deserve to learn.

2023-03-22 Bond yield goes up

Bond yield goes little up, and stock price rise much, the market is widespeard expectation that the pace of interest rate hike will slow down.

Generate AI likes ChatGPT and Claude and Brad develop so fast and the experience of use those tools shock me. I'm pretty want to buy Nvidia stock, but I had set a rule that not buy individual stock, ok, how about 10 percent?

link and logic of bonds

1 BASIC:

graph LR
PriceUP[Price Up]
PriceDown[Price Down]

YieldDown([Yield Down])
YieldUp([Yield Up])

people--Buy-->PriceUP-->YieldDown;
people--Sell-->PriceDown-->YieldUp;

2 Inflation:

graph LR
PriceUP[Price Up]
YieldDown([Yield Down])


HighInflation--RaisesFederalFundsRate-->
HigherInterestRates[Higher Interest Rates] -- bondsMoreAttractive -->
DemandForBondsIncreases -->
PriceUP[Price Up] -->
YieldDown([Yield Down])

EconomicCrisis--LowerFederalFundsRate-->
LowerInterestRates[Lower Interest Rates] -- bondsLessAttractive -->
DemandForBondsDecrease[Demand For Bonds Decrease] -->
PriceDown[Price Down] -->
YieldUP([Yield Up])

3 Affect Inflation:

graph LR
HighPMI-->HotEconomic-->
HighInflation--RaisesFederalFundsRate-->
HigherInterestRates[Higher Interest Rates] -- bondsMoreAttractive -->
DemandForBondsIncreases -->
PriceUP[Price Up] -->
YieldDown([Yield Down])

HighCPI-->HotEconomic
HighPPI-->HotEconomic


LowPMI-->ColdEconomic-->EconomicCrisis--LowerFederalFundsRate-->
LowerInterestRates[Lower Interest Rates] -- bondsLessAttractive -->
DemandForBondsDecrease[Demand For Bonds Decrease] -->
PriceDown[Price Down] -->
YieldUP([Yield Up])

LowCPI-->ColdEconomic

my questions

• how short term treasury Notes impact long term bonds?

1. 活的足够久，你自然能掌握到更好的生产力
2. 活的开心，明月照大江，别让外界影响自己，这是活的足够久的一个保证
3. 加强自己对本质的东西的理解，Training自己，很多东西不会变的，比如
   • 语言，让你和世界能加强连接的工具
   • 社会分配关系，有人的地方就有江湖，股市也是个大江湖，由更多的人biubiubiu的绑在一起分配资源
4. 加强连接，既然想从社会分配中摄取资源，就别隐居，广泛参与到各种分工
   • 4.1 知识传播分工，帮助社会智能中的个体更快的发展，普及， 参与各种社区，开源，发帖，评论，吹牛
   • 4.2 资源分配分工，新的有数字货币，老的有股市基金
   • 4.3 参与分工的时候要专业，不要做中下游的节点

30 years treasury bonds

30 years treasury bonds is a very useful investment tool. but it's counterintuitive because of usually bonds return rate is low at 3%-5%, but long term bonds not, cause of the face value, coupon rate, bond price math magic, the yield decrease 1%, and the bond price will increase near 30%.

The calulation is simple, here is a example case:

• Treasury issused a bond face valuse is $100,000, Coupon reate is 3%
• Investors auction the bond, a guy named GUY1, bid highest price $101,000, so GUY1 get this bond.
• now this bond yield can be calculated as:
  • maturity= (100000*3%)*30 +100000 =190000.0 ,return 3% per year, and return principal at 30rd year. GUY1 will get $3000 per year, and 100k at 30rd year.
  • yield=($3,000 + (($100,000 - $101,000) / 30)) / (($100,000 + $101,000) / 2) =0.019712 or 1.97%, Yield = (Annual coupon payment + ((Face value - Purchase price) / Years to maturity)) / ((Face value + Purchase price) / 2)
• And Guy1 now can sell this bond to others at market.
• if Guy2 buy at $102,000, the price increase = (102000-101000)/101000 = 0.0099 =0.99%
• now yield =($3,000 + (($100,000 - $102,000) / 30)) / (($100,000 + $102,000) / 2) =0.019426=1.9426%
• so yield decrease 0.0286% and price increase 0.99%
• so price increase rate is about 30 times as yield rate.

this is the power of long term bonds math, if we expect interest rate will decrease 1%, we will get 30% return of our invest.

who buy bonds

Because of safety and security of US treasury bonds, there is widly investors buy it, roughly proportion is:

• Foreign investors 29%
• Pension funds, insurances, and other professional institutions, 40%
• Federal Reserve, individual 31%

how they buy bonds

• 1. Participating in a Treasury auction
• 2. Trading with others at online market
• 3. stock ETF, like ZROZ, TLT, EDV

basic principle:

• bonds demands ↑ increase -> price up-> yield down
• bonds demands ↓ decrease -> price down-> yield up

so all origin driving force is demands of market. what will influce market demands?

what will influence bonds demands?

generally:

• 1. Interest reates, (federal fund rate ↑, short term rate ↑, long-term bonds demand ↓, long-term bonds price ↓, long-term bonds yield ↑)
• 2. Inflation expectations, (inflation ↑, federal fund rate ↑,...bonds yield ↑)
• 3. Economic , (economic hot, inflation ↑, ...bonds yield ↑)
• 4. Geopolitical events, (tough time ↑ , long-term bonds demand ↑, long-term bonds price ↑, long-term bonds yield↓)

but, need to be metioned, market is complicated, not single dimensional, you should carefully consider the relations, likes when Ukriane-russian war started, yields not goes down but goes up, because its is in high inflation time, and the war make infation more worst.

what will long-term bonds directly impact

• mortgate rates

bonds demands supply cruve

我对认知心理学的学习

English Verison

我正在阅读《Cognitive Psychology for Dummies》这本书，我的目的是：

• 理解人类学习、认知、知识的基本原理
• 学习最佳学习方法，特别是如何提高英语学习能力
• 提高阅读能力，因为我之前没有完整地读过一本书，所以想尝试这个挑战。

第一部分：认知心理学入门

认知心理学是研究思维能力和认知过程的科学。它关注人们的感知、注意、记忆、推理、问题解决、决策、阅读和口语等方面。

认知心理学的结构如下：

• 应用：教学、学习和自我提升。
• 信息处理框架
  • 输入 => 感知 => 注意 => 存储（短期记忆、长期记忆）=> 输出（问题解决、决策、语言等）
• 输入：大脑如何从感官中解释信息。
• 存储：大脑如何存储信息。
• 语言和思维：大脑如何处理信息，做出决策。

认知心理学如何研究？

• 实验室测试
• 计算机建模（书中提到神经网络可以模拟并成功解释人类行为）
• 脑损伤患者研究
• 分析大脑

认知心理学主要研究领域：

• 感知
• 记忆
• 语言
• 思维

人的认知上存在一些限制，有时候可能会导致灾难，例如荷兰开通的一条道路隧道连接史基浦和阿姆斯特丹，交通事故率远高于其他隧道。这是因为隧道的设计有一个锥形，当经过时大脑的视觉系统会认为出口距离较远，但实际上并不是。当司机通过出口时，车速很高来不及减速，到出口时突然减速，导致事故发生。

利用大脑的存储机制来减少创伤后伤害的一个例子：因为大脑的长期存储需要睡眠来存储记忆，所以在创伤事件发生后阻止当事人睡眠可能会减少随后的有害影响。相反，如果你正在进行重要的学习，最好是睡好觉，不要试图利用睡眠时间拜佛脚。

概要性来说，我们可以掌握一些技巧，来提高学术或学习技能：

1. 提升感知和注意力

• 注意生物钟：找到你学习的最佳时间，生物钟有最佳学习时段，好好休息，养成规律，别熬夜。
• 大量练习：提升能力的不二法门，通常对于感知和运动类都有效，对于智力学科比如学数学可能无效。
• entry point 进入注意力时间：你可以创建一个脚本，开始你的日常例行程序，比如玩三分钟的愚蠢游戏（不多不少），或者倒个茶。
• 聚焦注意力的技巧：
  • 在开始学习前，轻度到中度运动15分钟，
  • 关闭分心的事物，如手机、Facebook等。
  • 如果你有两个不同任务，属于不同的领域，可以多任务处理(后续章节会详细讲解原理)。（但是可能会降低你的效率）
  • 避免分心，研究显示说话声音是最容易分心的东西（来自广告电视周围人都会），尝试找到一个安静的环境。

2. 提高学习和记忆能力

• 一些记住东西技巧
  • 分块，将大量的信息分成小块
  • 分层，分类
  • 联想，使信息更个性化，例如用易于记忆的东西替换要学习的词语。或者将要记住的列表编成一首歌。
• 长期记忆机制
  • 分割学习、练习，短时间冲刺的学习，比长时间连续奋战更好。
  • 做测试，很好的强迫关联记忆。
• 干扰会导致遗忘，想办法专注
• 预热和放松有助于更快地检索信息。考试或者答辩时尽量让自己的相同的环境.

3. 提高阅读和写作能力

如何提高阅读能力

• 尽可能多地阅读。（看似废话其实很有用）
• 推荐的阅读过程
  • 浏览或预览文本
  • 有目的地阅读
  • 使阅读个性化
  • 抱着目的，问题去阅读
  • 翻译成自己的语言
  • 让它变得有趣
  • 利用上下文理解思想
  • 做笔记并回来看
  • 保持节奏，不要中断，不知道的单词就跳过。
  • 多读 如何提高写作能力
• 理解格式
• 先计划再写
• 想象你正在向朋友讲述和解释你的想法。

4. 更有效地利用你的思维能力

• 使用理性逻辑
• 系统化计划
• 创建和使用子目标
• 自动化思考过程
• 逆向思考
• 成长开放心态

Money is a Voting Right, it's not just a number that you can buy things, it's people's willing of wish you to do something. so invest is vote who can resprent you to do something.

Invest Bond is wish the government to do the right thing like help country grow. invest Nvidia is choose Nvidia as the present of AI infrastructure.

You should choose the best present of the market. judge them as they are a person , a inteligence.

Is Technical sector still the best present of productive ? I think it is. especially at this moment of AI rise.

A respecful older used be very foresighted to proprose the slogan of "Always Represent the advanced productive forces.", I used to think it's just a boring right but meaningless phrase. But now I know how hard to represent productive, how hard to find the pattern of solving the problem, it's so easy to be not even wrong.

Unfortunately, this slogan is not emphasized as much now. However, this slogan is not just a clichéd phrase for results certification, but rather a guiding direction for the iterative process, that is very close to the essence. For a complex intelligent agent, the ultimate goal is to find the optimal path under the potential difference. This slogan is very fundamental, but it is difficult to achieve in practice due to many traps, such as "poorly defined problems, NOT EVEN WRONG, common demand misjudgments, and individual and organizational interests being misaligned" or "precise problem definition, but old models being stubbornly adhered to due to various constraints". Although the optimal path will naturally appears as long as the potential difference exists (and is constantly replaced by competition), But for individuals with limited lifetimes, it is important to focus on whether they represent the optimal path, and not waste time on trivial matters.

Cognitive psychology

CN中文版

I'm currently read the book: "Cognitive Psychology for Dummies", What I want to get from this book:

• How human learning, cognitive things, knowledge, what is the basic fundamental
• The best(or good) way to learning, especially how to improve my english learning
• Improve my reading, cause I'm not read a complete book, I want try this challenge.

Part 1 Getting Started with cognitive psychology

Cognitive Psychology is a science of study mental abilities and processes about knowing. Interested in all the things that people preceiving, attending to, remembering, reasoning, problem solving, decision making , reading and speaking.

The structure of cognitive psychology is the following:

• Applications: teach,learn and self-improve.
• Information-processing framework
  • INPUT=>Perception=>Attention=>Storage(Short-term memory,Long-term memory)=>OutPut(Problem solving,Decision making,lauguage...)
• Input: how the brain interprets the information from the senses.
• Storage: how the brain stores the information.
• Language and thought: how brain process the information. make decisions.

How Cognitive Psychology do researching?

• Testing in the laboratory
• Modelling with computers(the book metioned nural network to mimic and successful explaining human behaviour)
• working with brain-damaged people
• Analysing the brain

Main areas that cognitive psychology investigates:

• Perception
• Memory
• Language
• Thinking

There are some limitations of human psychology that can cause problems, Example: the road tunnel opened in the Netherlands connecting Schiphol and Amsterdam result was a higher rate of traffic accidents. that's because the tunnel had a tapered design, brain's visual systems think the exit being father away, but in fact not. when the driver cross the exit, the car's speed is much high, so the driver had suddently slow down then cause the accident.

A example to use the brain's storage mechanism to reduce tragedy harms: Because brain's long term storage need sleep to lays down the memory, so preventing a person from sleeping in the aftermath of a traumatic event may reduce the subsequent harmful pychological effects. on the contrary if you engaged in important learning , it's better to take good sleep. not try to use the sleep time to holding the Buddha's feet.

Before we finally read the book, we can get some techniques to improve our academic or learning skill:

1. Engaging your perception and attention

• Netural body cycle: find your best time to learning, body has clock
• Massive practice: works for perceptual an motor skills, not work for intellectual subjects.
• Capturing attention: you can create a script by start your routine, like playing silly game for 3 minutes(not more, not less).
• Focusing attention techniques:
  • mild to moderate exercise 15 minutes before attempt to learn.
  • turn off distractions like mobile phone,facebook.
  • multitask, if the two tasks use different aspects of your working memory. (May lower performance)
  • avoid distraction, by researches, speech is the most distract things than other, try find a quit enviorment.

2. Improving your learning and memory

• Remember Techniques
  • Chunking, group incoming information that's largely into small chunks
  • Levels of processing framework
  • Mnemonics, make information personally, like replace the words that's you're trying to learn with something easier to learn. Put the lists to remember into a tune to form a song.
• Storing for the long term
  • Distributing practice, short bursts learning is better than long time study.
  • Testing what you know, this cause you to form new links in your memory.
• Avoid interference to forgetting
• Pre-heat and relax help you retrieving information quicker.

3. Polishing up your Reading and Writhing skills

How to Improving Reading

• as much and as often as possible.
• recommend reading process
  • Skim or preview the text
  • Read with purpose
  • Make your reading personal
  • Ask questions
  • Translate into your own language
  • Make it Interesting
  • Use context to make sense of ideas
  • Make a note and come back to it
  • Keep the flow, don't mind the word you don't known.
  • Read more

How to Improving Writing

• understand the format
• planing and writing
• imaging you are speaking and explaining your idea to your friends.

4. Using your thinking powers more Effectively

• Using rational logic
• Planing systematically
• Creating and using sub-goals
• Automating components
• Working backwards
• Growth mindset

Part 3 Memory

Long Term Memory

Long Term Memory is all the things you remember and know, such as skill, events, facts, words.

The processing allows you to remember information for a long time is memory process, there is a frame work called levels of processing framework can help us learn things, there are three levels of processing:

• Shallow processing: This involves processing information based on its physical characteristics, such as its appearance or sound. Shallow processing is relatively superficial and does not involve much semantic or meaningful processing.
• Intermediate processing: This involves processing information based on its meaning or semantic content. Intermediate processing involves deeper and more meaningful processing than shallow processing.
• Deep processing: This involves processing information based on its meaning and relating it to other information in memory. Deep processing involves the most meaningful and elaborate processing and is associated with the best memory retention.

How to classifying Long-term memories, that is the structure:

• Explicit Memory: what memory you can decribe and speak out
  • Episodic memory, remembering life events
  • Semantic memory, know the facts
• Implicit Memory: what memory you usually didn't know you can do it, such as how you swiming
  • Procedural memory: how to do things
  • Priming memory: Repetition of information and where a recent event or things influences your behaviour
  • Associative learning: where you learn to link events or objects as being related
  • Non-associative learning: Habits

how you Storing Long-term memories:

1. Stabilisation of the cells in the memory centres of the brain, take minutes or hours
2. Reorganisation of the parts of the brain , days to months or years

how to enchancing this storing progress:

• Drugs that stimulate the central nervous system. Endorphins released following exercise is the naturally-occuring stimulants.
• Sleeping after learning

what will reducing storing progress:

• Electric shocks to the brain
• A lack of oxygen to the brain
• Certain drugs (propranolol to treat post-traumatic stress disorder)

how you retrieval memory:

• active/conscious retrieval
• unintentional retrial
• recognition

Yesterday, the US stock market rose 2.3%, because of the SVB crisis was solved, and CPI data was as expectated. And the Hongkong stock market is going down yesterday, I think Today the Hongkong market will raise as the US market, so I'm bought XIAOMI back at 11.24(which i sold at 11.56), the price went up in the morning, reaching a high of 11.36, but it soon went down again. I sold at 10.96, and lost about 10k HKD.

I feel angry, sad, and disappointed about myself. I realize that I made a mistake by speculating and gambling on XIAOMI's stock, despite knowing that it was not a good time to hold the company. I bought it simply because the market was rising, without considering the company's situation. Additionally, I lacked the knowledge to analyze the market and made my decision based on intuition alone.

I regret my immaturity and recognize that this is a big mistake that I need to remember in life. Therefore, I am recording it.

Next:

1. I will focus on studying and learning the logic, behavior, and fundamental knowledge of investing. SHARE what I learn in my blog.
2. Only invest INDEX and BOND , not gamble company price. base on probability. If I don't know the reason and probability, I will Hold CASH (For now the US FUND intrest is about 3%+ , it's a good choice for no risk hold).

昨日美股上涨2.3%，主要因为SVB危机解除，CPI数据在预期中。 而且港股昨天大跌跌，我觉得今天港股会随着美股上涨，所以我在11.24买入小米（前些天我在11.56卖出），今天价格确实上涨最高是11.36 ，但很快就下降。 最后我以10.96 的价格卖出，我损失了大约 10,000 港元，我是个笨蛋：

1. 这次纯属投机和赌博，我知道小米现在不是持有的好时机，我不相信它会很快恢复，但我买它是因为市场上涨，忽略了公司的情况。
2. 我只是凭感觉购买，没有一套可以验证的模型和方案。

我对自己感到愤怒、悲伤和失望. 之前我在市场上损失了很多钱，但我并不生气，因为以前我只购买指数并长期持有，逻辑是理性的，定投平均价格迟早会回来（实际也是），但这次我很后悔我的不成熟。 我在对基本逻辑一知半解的情况下，刚了解一些利率知识，就迫不及待地想试试，结果很快打脸。

这是人生中需要记住的一个大错误，所以我记录下来。

接下来：

1. 注重学习，学习逻辑、行为、道理、基础知识。 分享我学到的东西，并在博客中分享
2. 只投资INDEX和BOND，不赌公司价格。 基于概率决策，如果我不知道原因和概率，我会Hold CASH（目前美国FUND利息在3%+左右，无风险hold还算不错）。

Today the plunge of XIAOMI stock price give me a leason of don't gamble.

My question to research:

• Why SVB crisis happened? how intrest rate raise lead bank crisis?
• how federal rate raise affect the bond rate ?
• why bank crisis and bond price up and yield down?
• why 30 year bond yield goes up when federal fund rate goes up (short-term rate goes up)?

Get Feedback is the key to train my self, without feedback, many things may stay Not Even Wrong, Learn in public is a technique to get feedback.

Afghanistan women droped out school

As UN report, 80% children and young women in Afghanistan dropped out school, 1.2million people can't get into school after Taliban issued the injunction of women education.

http://www.inewsweek.cn/world/2023-03-06/17761.shtml

Tragedys in the world

Today is 2023, and I seen so many tragedys in the world. I realized that I need to do somethings, not just sit and watching. Even I'm too small, but I can do something.

I will explore the story of real people in the War, Incident, and tradegies. find the root reason, the human behavior, the psychology, etc.. that why bad things happen, what may lead the tradegies happy, and how to stay vigilant and avoid it.

The topic I want write in the future maybe:

• The war in Syria
• Afghanistan Women Rights
• The war in Ukraine and Russia
• The Story of Pig Butchering Scam

Afghanistan Women Rights

• Afghanistan women droped out school

Inteligence

Theories

1. [What]Inteligence Comes from move, transfer, staic things likes stone has no Inteligences, but water with moving may be has Inteligences. Inteligence is a kind of pattern or function, and it can transfer one thing to another.
2. [Why]It's not peopele design Inteligence to do something, It's something (which has potential energy) let the Inteligence appear.
3. [Where]It's sounds like Human being is the most complex Inteligence, but it's not.
   1. More Complicated Inteligence is Society. Back to theory 2, It's not Human being designed Society, It's whole Human being's Require, Demands, let the Society appear. It's grow from tribe to group to nation to today's whole world society.
   2. AI Born from There is more efficient solutions to solve problems, the problems('s energy) lead the solutions(AI, or others in future) to appear.
   3. Company is also a inteligence, it's drive by specify demands, compounds of people, team, resources, and so on.
4. [How1]Inteligence's Basic Element is
   1. Potential energy (why inteligence exists)
   2. Pattern (the form maybe service, organization, solutions, product, company , organism and so on. all about how to make the move, the perfect inteligence is the straight way make the move).
5. [How2]Inteligence's Bacis Purpose is
   1. survive(let self exist)
   2. expand(let self be great exist,to absorb more resources,energy)

If you want to know a inteligence, you should know it's potential energy, the pattern may be change ,the energy is always the same.

• Is apple a good company? first you need find the potential energy, It's probably comes from People's demand of mobile work, mobile entertainment, mobile communication, and so on. and Then you need find is it the best solutions.
• Find energy is more and more important and find a pattern, the high potential energy need less pattern you need to build example:
  • People need eat. but less need clothes.
  • GFW make a super high potential energy difference, it's makes a lot easy pattern exists.
  • Traditional Education also made a high potential energy difference, People spend much more time on meaningless education(It's meanful sometimes, it's made so many verified and filtered great worker to support old production relations), but more straight pattern now appears, like self-education, straight get to work, and so on. internet make new pattern possible.

Think as a artificial inteligence

1. both human and AI are neural network, they has no basic diference. only scale, complexity's diference.
2. human's ability is more comes from train (not only school stuty, it's just you learn from all the things you see, hear, touch, and so on), so you can also be the Olympic champion, or the best programmer, or the best singer, or the best painter, or the best writer, or the best anything you want to te.
3. But, the most important thing is you need to train. train to learn , train to speak, train to build solutions, the more you partake in, the more ability you will get.

Self Training

1. time is the most important thing, stick on it.
2. known where the potiential energy difference comes from.
3. more pattern

我，如果对自己妥协，如果对自己说谎，即使别人原谅，我也不能原谅。

最美的愿望，一定最疯狂。 

我就是我自己的神，在我活的地方。

下一站，是不是天堂，就算失望，不能绝望。

就这一次，让我大声唱，就算失望，不能绝望。

我和我骄傲的倔强，握紧双手绝对不放。

——Just write some phrase, on the day I finally decided focus on my own practice and dream, not disturbed by the pressure and money.

Stick on a thing is not easy, especially stick on the life, stick on what I believe. But that's give me courage, give me strength, give me confidence and give me happy. I love it, eventhough I'm poor, I'm weak, But, It's me, it's real me.

A big change since me known that I was a neural network likes AI, is trun from result oriented to process oriented. From set a goal and perform it to set a enviorment and set the routine. just try and try, I don't know if it's possiable, I just know it will be possible.

I used to set a goal of lose to 75kg, and list the thing I need todo , like exercise at morning, sleep at 11pm. eventhough I had archieve this goal now, but not by follow my plan, things change a lot, I usually didn't finish my plan and I'm frustrating, sometimes I'm not exercise long time. things change from i just set the time , i need a exercise per 2 days, whatever the exercise is it. running , bicycle , or just squat.

And for the develop app, I have many idea to do, and have so much things to archieve, it's hard to schedule how i can finish it. so i explore and finish a feature and a feature, but it's just so long to the milestone . so I change to just stick time on it. forget the version 1, version 2, I have time, I can make someting in this time. things gonna easy.

我不戴口罩进地铁，图书馆的社会行为实验

我不喜欢戴口罩，尤其是因为我知道它对新冠不起作用。 在Omicron爆发之前，公共场所都必须戴口罩，所以我去地铁或图书馆等公共场所时必须戴口罩。

当疫情开始消退时，进入公共场所仍然被要求戴口罩。 有一天，我没戴口罩去地铁，保安也没拦我。 我很高兴以为禁令结束了。第二天就发现这只是一个例外，禁令照旧。但是我琢磨了一下，发现地铁上的语音提示从“请全程佩戴好口罩，否则将会劝离” 变成了简单的 “请全程佩戴好口罩”。 他们删除了“劝离”的部分。 我意识到，于理，根据法律没有规定公共交通需要戴口罩（地铁上外放音乐他们都有权处罚，但是不戴口罩没有），于情，新冠降级，他们已经无权强制公众戴口罩了。

所以我开始不在公共场所戴口罩。 这是结果记录：

• 安检员和保安都会叫我戴上。 不过也不会勉强，只要我坚持的话，还是可以进入地铁的。
• 我在地铁上看到的每个人都戴着口罩。
• 一些保安人员以为我忘了带口罩，所以要给我一个。
• 当我反问为什么我必须戴口罩时，他们会说“这是规定”或“每个人都这样做”。 但是当我要求具体规则时，他们不会提供。他们说，她们没有收到任何停止戴口罩的通知，所以继续要戴。
• 图书馆会检查没有戴口罩的人。有一次保安追着我要我戴，继续着那套进来就要戴，大家都戴的说辞，我说请拿出强制戴口罩的规定，他说不是强制是劝导希望配合，我说我不喜欢戴我不配合，他说“不配合，不配合可以”就走了。

今天（02-10），图书馆将说辞从“你需要戴，这是规定”改为“如果可以请戴口罩”。 我很高兴看到这种变化，特别是因为我的“不遵守”可能会产生一些影响。

我的心理压力和犹豫

我的心理经过一些变化

• 一开始是有压力和极度的不适应，其实保安和安检员，工作人员没把我怎么样，就只是劝我，但是心理压力来自：跟所有人不一样，每天至少3次对抗（2次进地铁，一次进图书馆），我很多次，把手伸进口袋去拿口罩，有时候手就在口袋里拿着口罩，走到安检前才决定不拿出来。
• 遇到一些强硬语气很不好的，开始我会生气，想理论一番。现在次数多了，就无所谓了，笑笑不说话就走了。

我对规则认知的更新

• 疫情确实刷新了我的认知，特别是行为，认知，潜规则，法规的边界
• 以前我以为政府和事业单位，公共单位都是依照法律法规办事，没规定不办事，实际上很多情况不是，有很多模糊地带，这些模糊地带不一定是出于懒政，而是管理模式和规则滞后性。
• 戴不戴口罩，原因其实很复杂，远不是能不能防新冠能解释。比如：
  • 安慰效应，获得一种掌控感，甚至有些会因为这种安慰感被破坏而感到愤怒，比如我带小孩走在路上遇到过老太太指着小孩说戴好口罩(这很不友好)
  • 管理规则的滞后性，在人治模式下，要做什么会急冲冲，不用做什么则是慢慢慢，比如到现在，其实堂食要间隔的规定并没有取消。
  • 戴口罩本身确实能防过敏，一定程度防止流感等，疫情让很多人认识到这个好处，会有更多人戴，但照概率分布，应该只是部分不是大多数。
  • 规则本身的可执行性非常重要，为什么间隔堂食很快没有了，戴口罩还存在，打疫苗也没有流行起来（少于5%），这就要看性价比，阻力大小，远不是能不能防病毒的简单判断。
• 对自己而言，了解问题，了解各方的解决方案，了解解决方案背后的模式，很关键，有时候顺从自己的直觉并不一定是你的最优解。

A experiment of hebavior in society

中文版CN

I didn't like to wear a mask, especially since I knew it didn't work on Omicron, so I would not wear it when possible. Before the Omicron outbreak, wearing a mask was mandatory in every public place, so I had to wear a mask when going to public places such as the metro or library.

Things got interesting when the pandemic started to fade. More people started wearing masks in public places, and masks were still required. I wondered when it would end. One day, I didn't wear a mask going to the metro, and the security did not stop me. I was happy that the mask mandate was ending, but that was just an exception. I was reminded to wear a mask next time.

The voice notice at the metro changed from "You should wear a mask or you will be asked to leave" to simply "You should wear a mask." They removed the "asked to leave" part. I realized that, based on the law, they had no right to force the public to wear masks, they could only persuade it.

So I started trying not to wear a mask in public places. Here's what happened:

• Every time, I was told to wear a mask. However, they wouldn't force me, and I could still take the train if I insisted.
• Every person I saw on the metro was wearing a mask.
• Some security personnel thought I forget take a mask, so they gave me one.
• When asked why I had to wear a mask, they would say "it's the rule" or "everyone does it." But when I asked for specific rules, they wouldn't provide them. One woman said they hadn't received any notice to stop the mask mandate since the pandemic.
• The library would check people who weren't wearing masks.

And today (02-10), the library changed the language from "You need to wear it, it's the rule" to "Please wear a mask if you can." I was very happy to see this change, especially since my "non-compliance" might have had some impact.

Sometimes I struggled with the decision to wear a mask. It's easy, and nobody would discourage me, intercept me, or forbid me. The fear of being different from others, causing trouble, or not respecting others' work often made me choose to wear a mask. Many times, I reached into my pocket to grab the mask and then hesitated.

I think I learned why all people in the metro wear masks and why fewer people in the grocery store do by observing myself.

• For society, it's like a water valve. People's decision not to wear a mask is like water, and the more valve loose, the more water flows out. If you want to stop the water, you have to put in a lot of effort to close the valve.
• For individuals,
  • many of them just don't want to cause trouble.
  • some are afraid, and the mask makes them feel safer.
  • the stress of being different from others is overwhelming.

If you're a person who just wants to do what you want without causing trouble, try it. When you face the stress of being different, just tell yourself it's just stress. Your actions are based on logic, not stress. Be kind to others, smile and go, and avoid conflicts.

论命运与自我

如果用静态规律结果看问题，是的，人的命运早已被天注定：

• 生下来吃喝拉撒占据了你 80%欲望与诉求
• 大概活几十年就会死，前半截呜呼哀哉，后半截呜呼哀哉
• 无论你如何努力，将来你都没办法在 [任何任何任何] 具体的问题上战胜 AI, 不管是绘画，作诗，音乐，科研，情感
• 如果你说阶层固化，阶层其实不固化，从来都是三十年河东三十年河西，但是你即使突破到最顶级的阶层，实际上你还是在一个很低维度的阶层，跟所有人类在一个水平线，今天吃喝拉撒，明天为一点多巴胺尝试各种新奇的事情，，后天为了未来确定的危机而强身健体改变命运

而且，你从演化来看问题，人的命运其实被摁得死死的，看不到希望：

• 人的本质不复杂，就那么多细胞，那么点脑容量，那么点神经网络，无法存储任何图像细节，但是这是个迭代了无数无数轮的神经网络。迭代本身就是传奇。从单细胞到组织到生命到社会。
• 简单的模型，演化到复杂的模型，带来的是认知能力的提升，未来认知能力会继续向指数级提升。全方位碾压现在人类的神经网络。全方位，任何方位。从第一性原理，人类不可能不能被取代，从现在 CHATGPT 等通用模型的发展大家就可以看到未来会怎样。
• 从个体到群体到部落到社会，神经网络的能力不断的在增强，现在个人在社会面前同样是被碾压状态，在社会能力面前，任何个体组织都是极其可以忽略的存在。在 AI 智能的时代，社会都只是 AI 组织关系里的一块供应链，更何况人类。

但是，细胞虽然弱小，但是有自己的生存使命，不可能因为其他的存在，在低纬度就不继续生存。

• 个体的命运，能做什么，有太多的外界限制
• 个体的能力，能做到什么，却没有任何限制，大家的模型硬件是差不多的，没谁的头有大象大。
• 个体的能力，取决于训练，你可以学会 20 门语言，你可以滑雪成为世界冠军，只要大量大量训练。
• 个体的能力差异，取决于历史的训练结果，未来的能力，取决于当下训练的结果，当然不是希望每个人所谓的发愤图强（在一个已知规律里卷没任何意义），而是希望你这个独特的灵魂，有敢于做任何事的勇气，尊重规律，向着自己深处的喜欢踏实探索。
• 人类的命运，限制在骨子里，生物天花板，究其一生都在与这些纠缠。但探索认知挑战也写在骨子里，这里面的乐趣无穷无尽，每一个决策，每一个新的认知，都是自己这个模型的迭代升级，这么来看，如何迭代升级自己，其实完全掌握在自己手里。

yesterday I tried webrtc-vad + baidu asr to recognize text in audio files, and today i found a openai project called whisper and it's stunned me , everything work perfect especially it's can run in local, so i didn't need to afraid the expense of online service fee.