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slan's invest log 2023-06-02 (#2 Good investment make you growth)

2023-06-02 18:16:00 +0000 UTC
#invest

slan's invest log 2023-06-02 (#2 Good investment make you growth)

This week I sold all the leveraged ETF, holding cash and start to systematic investmen Bonds(ZROZ) and Index ETF(QQQ,VOO). Now Position: |quote|percent| |---|----| |ZROZ|25%| |QQQ|0%| |VOO|0%| |CASH|75%|

bonds

bonds price rose 3% in the last week, here is the main reason:

  1. Bank system goes steady now, the BTFB rose slowly not surge.
  2. FED is neutral, not sell not buy.
  3. stock is cold early but goes hot in friday.
  4. treasury debt ceiling crisis is solved. treasury will release much more T-bills in weeks.
  5. Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous

So the price goes high mainly cause of risk aversion, but when the stock goes higher, and treasury release bills pressure is coming the bonds price declined. I think bonds price is continue to decline next week, it's a chance to buy it.

About Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous some people think there will be some data error or maluplation. Here is a metaphor: The reason for massive travellers at the airport can be BAD WEATHER or the HOT TRAVELLING SEASON. I see the employment market is still hot, but the economic is slow down, and we will see more cold evidence in future.

good investment make you growth

good investment make you growth, bad investment consume yourself. previously I bought leveraged bonds, want to be rich quickly, but the truth is you will get more sometimes, but in long time it will all return back. and you will need to pay the cost. the cost of my recently 2 month is not good sleep, spent much time in monitor the price, and lost the time to study and try providing my independent service.

I could laydown lying flat, bonds will goes up in next 6 month, and QQQ goes up 30% in this year. the only thing I need to waiting, and I will have much time to do other things.

But the greedy and trust I'm lucky make me use the leverage, when profited, it's make me more irrational, when lost, it's make me more fear and sold out. in total I cost more time and not gain more. so it's a bad investment.

So this week I'm holding cash, lying flat, waiting the chance. embaracing the life again.

strategy

  • buy bonds to 70% .
  • 30% investment QQQ when lower position.