Steady but boring: My selling put strategy

graph TD
    A[Start] -->|Bullish or Neutral on NVDA| B{Sell NVDA Put at<br>OTM 2-3%  }
    B -->|Premium Received| C[Buy QQQ]
    B --> D{Monitor Put}
    D -->|Premium < 30%| E[Close Position]
    E --> F[Reassess Market]
    F -->|Bullish on NVDA| G[Sell New Put]
    F -->|Neutral/Bearish| H[Wait for Better Entry]
    D -->|14-21 DTE| I{OTM by > 3%?}
    I -->|Yes| J[Let Expire]
    I -->|No| K{Consider Rolling}
    K -->|Roll| L[Roll to Next Week/Month]
    K -->|Don't Roll| M[Prepare for Potential Assignment]
    D -->|< 14 DTE & ITM| N[Roll or Prepare for Assignment]
    N -->|Roll| O[Roll to Next Week/Month at<br> Higher Strike]
    N -->|Assign| P[Sell Covered Call on NVDA]
    P --> Q{Monitor Call}
    Q -->|Premium < 30%| R[Close Call]
    Q -->|Near Expiration| S{ITM?}
    S -->|Yes| T[Roll Up and Out]
    S -->|No| U[Let Expire]
    B & P --> V{Weekly Review}
    V --> W[Adjust Strategy if Needed]
    W --> B

Investing in A-Share Stock Market: My 2 Strategies

In Comparison to the U.S. Stock Market, The China stock market is notably riskier than its U.S. counterpart. with its performance often closely tied to government policies. to avoid high risk. I've two strategies:

1. Tracking Policy Updates and Market Sentiment

   • Stay Informed: Closely follow policy republish meetings and key announcements.
   • Experience-Based Insight: Utilize your market experience to assess whether these updates will likely draw significant investor interest.

2. Contrarian Approach: Timing the Market

   • Peak Identification: Pinpoint moments when the market reaches exceptionally high levels.
   • Sentiment-Driven Action: Consider short positions when market enthusiasm peaks, indicating potential over-optimism.

Howard Marks interview with Nicolai Tangen

Howard Marks, the author of the book "Mastering the Market Cycle" and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. He is joined by Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, discussed investment philosophy, cycles, and how he absorbs information.

Investment philosophy

Howard marks introduced his investment philosophy:

1. Risk control.
2. Consistency.
3. Market efficiency, only target less efficient markets.
4. Specialization, know more than everybody else about a few things.
5. Not relying on macroeconomic forecasts.
6. Not timing the market.

Thoes philosophy was coming from his experience of the limits of knowledge. because investing is not a science, it's dealing with a lot of people, people have feelings, their behavior is unpredictable. Randomness is a big part of investing. Especially in the short term, stupid people get rich, you can't verify the quality of the decision by the outcome.

Howard think the key element of success is aggressiveness, timing, and skill. If you aggressive enough and in the right time, you don't need too much skill, but if you want success repeatedly, you need skill.

Howard believes that the market is cyclical, because people's greed and fear. When market is crazy high or crazy low, he think it's chance to make money based on the foreacst. The only problem is extreme high or low is too rare.

Risk management

Howard Marks emphasized that risk management is not risk avoidance, risk avoidance usually means return avoidance, if you want to profit, you have to take risk. and you can't take money just by taking risk, you have to do it skillfully.

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. Under any sets of circumstances, any outcome is possible. excessive certainty is dangerous. Aknowledge the limits of knowledge is our friend. If everything looks perfect, it's dangerous. Example:

• In late 2023, the consensus think Fed will cut 6 times in 2024, but the Fed only said they will cut 3 times. the consensus is too optimistic.

In Oaktree, Howard resisted having risk control department, because he think risk control is the responsibility of everybody.

Games

Howard think games is very helpful to investment:

1. It's risk taking
2. It's all about probabilistic, assessing the probability is very important.

Annie Duke, a PHD in decision analysis, also a poker world champion, wrote a book called "Thinking in Bets", she approached poker professionally, analytically, and with discipline. She helps people to think about the structuring bets. Example:

• In basketball game, when you bet on the popular team, if you win, you don't get much. but sometimes the payoff is better when you bet on the unpopular team.

Contrairianism

Contrairianism means beting against the consensus, usually the payoff is better. It's doesn't mean routinely think what is the consensus think and do the opposite, you need to think what is the consensus think, why they do that and why they are wrong. why they do that way.

If you want to be a contrarian person, you need to be comfortable with loneliness, you have to dare to be different. you have to dare to be wrong. Howard has a good partner, Bruce Karsh, they support each other, that make them more easy to overcome the loneliness.

It's more easy to be contrarian in the frothy than in the fearful market. Howard use a barometer to measure the market, like the temperature. He look at the oppinion of the people, how uniform they are, how satisfied they are, how strong they are.

Information flow

Howard's information flow is very simple, he read a newspapers, he consume 2-3 newspapers a day and read "The Economist", what the most important is not what happened, but what it means, why it happened. He try to figure out what is the temperature of the market, what is the position of the cycle.

Howard is keep eye on Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller, Seth Klarman

Advice

Howard's advice to young people is:

• If you want to be a good investor, you can't be right all the time.
• Investing is a great puzzle, you have to equip your philosophy to deal with it with many many considerations.

Book mentioned

• "Mastering the Market Cycle" by Howard Marks
• "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke
• "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nasdaq-100 analysis @ 2024-03-22

Nasdaq-100 index is a good long term invest target. Can I beat the index? here is my try.

My strategy is to hold index as long as possible, no matter if it's rising or falling. but I will take leverage when the index is low risk, and hold no leverage when high risk(price is high, inflation etc. ). So the risk prediction is the key point.

Lets begin, how I judge the risk of Nasdaq-100 index, its composed of 2 parts:

1. Economic situation:
   • Inflation:
     • Tech company will be hurted when in inflation situation.
   • Economic growth:
     • GDP, PMI, Employment, sales etc.
2. Single stock situation, is the major company in the index growing well?

Economic situation

key events:

• 2024-03-12: CORE CPI MoM 0.4% higher than expected.
• 2024-03-14: PPI MoM 0.6% higher than expected.

Two month data show that inflation is continue to rise not just a single month data noise. that will be the main risk may drive index down. should pay atttention on the Fed's action. if Fed tighten the interest rate , should be more risk aversion. my strategy for now is to hold VOO(SP-500 index) and find a chance to buy TQQQ(leveraged Nasdaq-100 index) when extreme low position or Fed's action is dovish.

Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate show the economy is still hot. can still expect the company's earning growth.

Single stock

high risk:

• NVDA: high PE, growth expectation is high
• AMD: high PE, growth expectation is high
• TSLA: high PE, growth low than expected

other risk

seasonal risk:

1. Months When QQQ Outperforms:
   1. November - This has historically been one of the strongest months for QQQ and the Nasdaq. From 1971-2022, QQQ averaged a 2.1% gain in November.
   2. April - The Nasdaq and tech stocks tend to see a bump in April, with QQQ averaging a 2.7% gain from 1971-2022 during this month.
   3. July - Coming out of the summer lull, July has averaged a 1.9% gain for QQQ from 1971-2022.
2. Periods of Outperformance:
   1. End of Q4/Start of Q1 - The October to January period has tended to be strong for QQQ, likely due to holiday consumer spending benefiting tech names.
   2. Summer Months - While seemingly counterintuitive, the May-August period has seen QQQ outperform from 1971-2022 versus other seasonal periods.

March is not on the list, be more cautious.

Geopolitical risk:

• red sea crisis, may make oil price surge and trade cost increase.

Drivers of interest rate

supply:

• treasury

demand:

• Foreign investors
• Federal Reserve
• Mutual funds
• Banks
• Pension funds
• Households

short term drivers:

• Economic data and Fed's action
• Flights to safety
• Debt auctions
• Mortgage hedging flows
• Corporate bond issuance
• Exotics hedging flows
• Seasonal factors

bonds review @2024-02

• long time goal: back to 2023-04-10 , 10 year treasury yield is 3.4%, TLT 106.
• short time range, around 4.2%:
  • yield > 4.1%, Economy hot and stagflation expectation. price <94.
    • if >94 then buy TMV, wait price down.
  • yield < 4.3%, FED'S goal for not too high interest rate. price >92.
    • if <92 then buy TMF, wait price up. but need to watch FED's action, not hike again.

watch

• 失业率，薪资增速

2024-02

Economic data hot , made 10-year treasury yield increase 0.1%, stable at 4.28%, TMF bottom at 52.

• support level: 4.28%?
• short term yields show 2024 rate cut 3 times. first at June, second at September, third at December.

02-01: FED PRESS CONFERENCE

• hawkish, no rate cut at March.
• 10-year treasury yield increase from 3.8% to 4.0%, to 4.16% in the next day.

02-13: Core CPI rose 0.4%

• stagflation expectation is rising. TLT price plunged %1, 10-year treasury yield from 4.17% to 4.31%
• but soon Europe ressession made yield decrease 4.2%, market is waiting for 02-16's PPI data.

02-16: PPI show economy is hot

• PPI show economy is hot, Bonds yield surge 4.29%, TMF near 52.
• but soon move back to 4.28%, TMF looks like have a bottom at 52.

slan's invest log 2023-06-09 (#3 profit is meaningless if its not stable)

When I reviewed my invest history, my most profitable investment wasn't one that yields 100%+ profit , but rather a boring one QQQ(NASDQ-100 index).It's easy to talk about the importance of slow and steady gains, but it's not always easy to resist the temptation of easy money. I used to say that "slow if fast", but when I found out how easy it was to earn 20% with leverge, I went all in with leverage, but the reality is that the marktet is fair, I couldn't earn more beyond my knowledge.

I have come to realized the improtance of STABLE GROWTH, their is an old idiom that says "守正出奇" (maintain the traditional while seeking innovation) emphasizing the importance of maintaining traditional values while also exploring new ideas. The most important aspect of this idiom is 守正 (maintain the traditional), rather than solely seeking innovation. You may lose everthing if you only seek a new way, but if you foucus on do the regular thing right , you can become a good survivaler.

this week

• TLT from 101.35 to 101.92 up trend but weak. low than previous week
• QQQ from 354.43 to 353.15 down trending, buy in 352
• BTFP still raising from 93B TO 100B, banks pressure still exist.
• TGA from 49B TO 45B , Treasury not began refill the TGA account. but "Treasury now expects that its cash balance will be approximately $425 billion at the end of June." their is 400B selling pressure in next 2 weeks.
• Unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%, Initial Jobless Claims 266k high than expected. but Continuing Jobless Claims is low than expected and previous week.
• Crude Oil Imports high than expected.
• Services PMI (May)54.9, high than previous month, low than expected.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Treasury Security holds from 1518B to 1531B, banks is stable and not selling bonds.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Deposits from 17235B to 17283B, banks is stable in total.

us economic is still in hot, and didn't see signal of recession.

events:

• Canada raise interest rates unexpectedly in Wendnesday, cause TLT price decline. the economic return hot when Canada stop hike rates.

strategy

now position:

next:

• holding QQQ and ZROZ , wait more datas.
• short holding TMV (15%), wait bonds goes down.

slan's invest log 2023-06-02 (#2 Good investment make you growth)

This week I sold all the leveraged ETF, holding cash and start to systematic investmen Bonds(ZROZ) and Index ETF(QQQ,VOO). Now Position: |quote|percent| |---|----| |ZROZ|25%| |QQQ|0%| |VOO|0%| |CASH|75%|

bonds

bonds price rose 3% in the last week, here is the main reason:

1. Bank system goes steady now, the BTFB rose slowly not surge.
2. FED is neutral, not sell not buy.
3. stock is cold early but goes hot in friday.
4. treasury debt ceiling crisis is solved. treasury will release much more T-bills in weeks.
5. Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous

So the price goes high mainly cause of risk aversion, but when the stock goes higher, and treasury release bills pressure is coming the bonds price declined. I think bonds price is continue to decline next week, it's a chance to buy it.

About Nonfarm Payrolls higher than exceptations but Unemployment Rate is also high than previous some people think there will be some data error or maluplation. Here is a metaphor: The reason for massive travellers at the airport can be BAD WEATHER or the HOT TRAVELLING SEASON. I see the employment market is still hot, but the economic is slow down, and we will see more cold evidence in future.

good investment make you growth

good investment make you growth, bad investment consume yourself. previously I bought leveraged bonds, want to be rich quickly, but the truth is you will get more sometimes, but in long time it will all return back. and you will need to pay the cost. the cost of my recently 2 month is not good sleep, spent much time in monitor the price, and lost the time to study and try providing my independent service.

I could laydown lying flat, bonds will goes up in next 6 month, and QQQ goes up 30% in this year. the only thing I need to waiting, and I will have much time to do other things.

But the greedy and trust I'm lucky make me use the leverage, when profited, it's make me more irrational, when lost, it's make me more fear and sold out. in total I cost more time and not gain more. so it's a bad investment.

So this week I'm holding cash, lying flat, waiting the chance. embaracing the life again.

strategy

• buy bonds to 70% .
• 30% investment QQQ when lower position.

slan的投资周报2023-05-26(#1 开始记录我的投资)

当我在四月买入TMF债券ETF时,我打开了一扇新世界的投资之门,我曾多次因损失金钱和压力而放弃,但最终坚持了下来。所以现在,我想跟随自己的心认真对待它。我将每周记录我的想法,行动和结果,以帮助我更好地整理思路并避免冲动行事。

今天,我会说一下:

• 我在四月和五月的交易历史
• 我是否获利?
• 我学到什么
• 我下一步如何行动

历史

3月15日,由于对中国经济失去信心,我卖出了小米和阿里巴巴股票,当时我相信这也是美联储停止加息的时机,所以我开始买入长期债券ETF,幸运的是,我在2周内获利15%以上,这给了我很大信心,让我相信可以赚得更多利润,这就是悲剧的开始。

随着时间推移到5月,债券价格开始波动,我简单的策略是在债券开始复苏时买入TMF,太高时卖空,这点不再有效,这时,我学会了如何分析趋势,我学习了线性回归,并用Pandas和Matplotlib画出价格趋势图。

我穷举了所有买卖参数来寻找能赚钱的神奇参数。最有意思的部分是,当我造了bug时,发现2年内就能回报100倍。我开始担心如何花费这么多钱。但是,事实是这只是bug或者并没有每次买入最低价的机会。当我修复了这些错误后,2年内的回报率只有2倍。当我在更长的时间内测试它时,我很快意识到这会导致更多损失。

5月中旬,债券价格下跌10%,我一直死扛等反弹。然而,在仔细分析美联储和经济数据后,我意识到由于通胀和繁荣的经济,债券价格将进一步下跌。所以我承担损失并开始卖空债券,这帮助我赚回一些钱。然而,我仍然损失了大量资金。

债券需求供应曲线: 美联储的运行:

现在,所有靠运气来的利润，已经被我的能力归0。^_^

从失败中学习

• 没想清楚不要动,我损失最多的就是来自FOMO（担心没赶上机会）或恐惧情绪。
• 学习从失败中吸取教训,接受我是愚蠢的,我需要更多学习。经济原理是测量和分析市场的最佳工具。
• 不要追求高点,也不要押注底部,在下跌趋势中更低意味着更低。
• 找到可能性。使用数学和经济模型来测试和验证它。模型是您继续盈利的唯一方式。
• 不要在上面花太多时间,价格由逻辑决定,而不是您花费的时间,所以我后面不会监控价格,只在第二天review和每周分析报告。
• 别加杠杆，它会放大贪婪，放大恐惧，让你的动作变形。

下一步行动

周五,债券价格停止下跌,债务上限达成协议,银行存款看起来停止下降。所以我需要仔细看看趋势。

好消息:

• 通胀率仍然较高,周五的PCE高于预期。
• 债务上限达成协议,财政部将在未来几周发行更多T-bills。风险规避风险消失。

坏消息:

• 周五收益率大幅下降,即使PCE数据不理想。这表明高看涨情绪。
• GDI数据指向衰退。
• 海外投资机构持有更多债券。
• 银行体系现在看起来稳定了。债券卖压正在缓解。

所以我将在周二看价格,

• 如果收益率继续下降,我会止损,并关注6月15日的FOMC会议。
• 如果收益率上升,我会在130美元卖出TMV。

长期计划:

• 迭代美国长期债券投资模型。
• 定期投资纳斯达克100指数(这是这几年唯一不坑我的标的了)。

slan's invest log 2023-05-26 (#1 Start to logging my investment)

中文版CN version

When I bought the TMF bonds ETF at April, I opened a new world of financial investment, I had given up several times due to money losses and pressure, but i eventually persisted . So now, I want to follow my heart and take it seriously. I will log my thoughts and my action and the result every week, for help me better sort my thoughts and avoid impluse action.

Today, I will talk about:

1. my trade history in April and May
2. did I profited?
3. what I learned
4. how will I do next

History

On March 15th, I sold my Xiaomi and Baba stocks due to lost confidence in the Chinese economic, at that time I belived it was also the right moment for the FED to stop interest rate hike, so i started buying long-term Bonds ETF, fortunately i made a profit of 15%+ in 2 weeks. which give me much confidence and belive I can make even more profits, that was the beginning of the tragedy.

As time moving to May, the bonds price began to fluctuate, my simple strategy of buy TMF when bonds start to recover, and shorting it when too high was no longer effective , at this point, i learned how to analyze the trending, i learned Linear Regression, and use Pandas and Matplotlib to plot price trending.

I exhaustion all possible actions trying to find a magic parameter that could earn money. Te most interesting part was when I made some bugs or errors while estimating the possibility of a buying opportunity, I saw a massive profit possibility, it's return 100x in juset 2 years. I started worry about how i could spent so much money. Howerver the truth was that it's just a bug or a mistake. and there was no chance of buying at the lowest price every time. When I fixed those bugs, it turned out to be only a 2x return in two years. When I tested it over a longer period of time, I soon realized that it would lead to further losses.

In the middle of May, bond prices lost 10%, and I waited for a rebound. However, after carefully analyzing the Fed and economic data, I realized that bond prices were going to drop even further due to inflation and a hot economy. So I took the loss and started to short bonds, which helped me make some money back. However, I still lost a significant amount.

bonds demands supply curve:

the Fed's mechanism:

Now , all the profit comes from lucky, wiped out by my ability.^_^

Learn from failures

1. Don't move when I'm not thinking clearly, My most lost is from FOMO or fear mood.
2. Learning from failures, accept that i'm foolish, I need much learning. the economic principle is the best tools to measure and analyze the market.
3. Don't chase high. and don't bet bottom, in downside trending lower is most meaning more lower.
4. Find prossibility. use math and economic model to test and verify it . the model is the only way you can conitnue to profit.
5. Don't spent much time on it, the price determined by logic ,not time you spent, so I will not monitor the price , only review at next day and write weekly report.
6. Don't use leverage, it will enlarge the greedy and enlarge the fear.

Next action

Bonds price stop decline at Friday, and debt ceiling is reach deal, and the bank deposit looks like stop decrease. so I need to carefully look at the trending.

the good news:

• Inflation is still high , PCE in Friday is high than expectation.
• Debt ceiling is reach deal, treasury will release much more T-bills in weeks. Risk Aversion risk is disappear.

bad news:

• Friday yield is going down much, even PCE data is not good. it's present high long mood.
• GDI data point to recession.
• Foreign holds is holding more bonds.
• bank system looks like steady now. the bonds sell pressure is easing.

so I will look at Tuesday price ,

• if yield still going down , I will take lost, and look at 15 June's FOMC meeting.
• if yield goes up, I will sell TMV @130

long term plan:

• model for invesment US long-term bonds.
• regularly invest NASDAQ-100

2023 US treasury bonds timeline

timeline
    title Bond Events Timeline 2023
    1.19: Initial Jobless Claims not meet expectations
    2.1: Fed hike 25bps to target 4.50-4.75%
    2.3: Nonfarm Payrolls not meet expectations
        : Bonds yield rose↑
    2.14: CPI exceeds expectations
    3.2 : Fed hike 25bps to target 4.75-5.00%
    3.8 : Powell speak monetary policy, inflation is stuborn but not mentioned hike 50 bps.
        : SVB crisis
    3.12: SVB broken solution comes out
    3.14 : CPI show inflation slow down,but core CPI stubbornly unchanged
    3.30 : Initial Jobless Claims not meet expectations
    4.4 : OPEC ruduce oil production
    4.7 : Nonfarm Payrolls not meet expectations
    4.21 : PMI exceeds expectations

The Fed(Federal Reserve System)

this is my learning record of

• Understand the Federal Reserve Board

architecture:

• Main Goal:
  • Sustainable Growth (economic growth)
  • and stable prices (low inflation)
• Monetary policy tools
  • Open market Operation
  • Discount Rates
  • Reserve Requirements
  • Forward guidance
  • Quantitative easing and Quantitative tightening

How Fed works:

link and logic of bonds

1 BASIC:

graph LR
PriceUP[Price Up]
PriceDown[Price Down]

YieldDown([Yield Down])
YieldUp([Yield Up])

people--Buy-->PriceUP-->YieldDown;
people--Sell-->PriceDown-->YieldUp;

2 Inflation:

graph LR
PriceUP[Price Up]
YieldDown([Yield Down])


HighInflation--RaisesFederalFundsRate-->
HigherInterestRates[Higher Interest Rates] -- bondsMoreAttractive -->
DemandForBondsIncreases -->
PriceUP[Price Up] -->
YieldDown([Yield Down])

EconomicCrisis--LowerFederalFundsRate-->
LowerInterestRates[Lower Interest Rates] -- bondsLessAttractive -->
DemandForBondsDecrease[Demand For Bonds Decrease] -->
PriceDown[Price Down] -->
YieldUP([Yield Up])

3 Affect Inflation:

graph LR
HighPMI-->HotEconomic-->
HighInflation--RaisesFederalFundsRate-->
HigherInterestRates[Higher Interest Rates] -- bondsMoreAttractive -->
DemandForBondsIncreases -->
PriceUP[Price Up] -->
YieldDown([Yield Down])

HighCPI-->HotEconomic
HighPPI-->HotEconomic


LowPMI-->ColdEconomic-->EconomicCrisis--LowerFederalFundsRate-->
LowerInterestRates[Lower Interest Rates] -- bondsLessAttractive -->
DemandForBondsDecrease[Demand For Bonds Decrease] -->
PriceDown[Price Down] -->
YieldUP([Yield Up])

LowCPI-->ColdEconomic

my questions

• how short term treasury Notes impact long term bonds?

30 years treasury bonds

30 years treasury bonds is a very useful investment tool. but it's counterintuitive because of usually bonds return rate is low at 3%-5%, but long term bonds not, cause of the face value, coupon rate, bond price math magic, the yield decrease 1%, and the bond price will increase near 30%.

The calulation is simple, here is a example case:

• Treasury issused a bond face valuse is $100,000, Coupon reate is 3%
• Investors auction the bond, a guy named GUY1, bid highest price $101,000, so GUY1 get this bond.
• now this bond yield can be calculated as:
  • maturity= (100000*3%)*30 +100000 =190000.0 ,return 3% per year, and return principal at 30rd year. GUY1 will get $3000 per year, and 100k at 30rd year.
  • yield=($3,000 + (($100,000 - $101,000) / 30)) / (($100,000 + $101,000) / 2) =0.019712 or 1.97%, Yield = (Annual coupon payment + ((Face value - Purchase price) / Years to maturity)) / ((Face value + Purchase price) / 2)
• And Guy1 now can sell this bond to others at market.
• if Guy2 buy at $102,000, the price increase = (102000-101000)/101000 = 0.0099 =0.99%
• now yield =($3,000 + (($100,000 - $102,000) / 30)) / (($100,000 + $102,000) / 2) =0.019426=1.9426%
• so yield decrease 0.0286% and price increase 0.99%
• so price increase rate is about 30 times as yield rate.

this is the power of long term bonds math, if we expect interest rate will decrease 1%, we will get 30% return of our invest.

who buy bonds

Because of safety and security of US treasury bonds, there is widly investors buy it, roughly proportion is:

• Foreign investors 29%
• Pension funds, insurances, and other professional institutions, 40%
• Federal Reserve, individual 31%

how they buy bonds

• 1. Participating in a Treasury auction
• 2. Trading with others at online market
• 3. stock ETF, like ZROZ, TLT, EDV

basic principle:

• bonds demands ↑ increase -> price up-> yield down
• bonds demands ↓ decrease -> price down-> yield up

so all origin driving force is demands of market. what will influce market demands?

what will influence bonds demands?

generally:

• 1. Interest reates, (federal fund rate ↑, short term rate ↑, long-term bonds demand ↓, long-term bonds price ↓, long-term bonds yield ↑)
• 2. Inflation expectations, (inflation ↑, federal fund rate ↑,...bonds yield ↑)
• 3. Economic , (economic hot, inflation ↑, ...bonds yield ↑)
• 4. Geopolitical events, (tough time ↑ , long-term bonds demand ↑, long-term bonds price ↑, long-term bonds yield↓)

but, need to be metioned, market is complicated, not single dimensional, you should carefully consider the relations, likes when Ukriane-russian war started, yields not goes down but goes up, because its is in high inflation time, and the war make infation more worst.

what will long-term bonds directly impact

• mortgate rates

bonds demands supply cruve