slan's invest log 2023-06-09 (#3 profit is meaningless if its not stable)

When I reviewed my invest history, my most profitable investment wasn't one that yields 100%+ profit , but rather a boring one QQQ(NASDQ-100 index).It's easy to talk about the importance of slow and steady gains, but it's not always easy to resist the temptation of easy money. I used to say that "slow if fast", but when I found out how easy it was to earn 20% with leverge, I went all in with leverage, but the reality is that the marktet is fair, I couldn't earn more beyond my knowledge.

I have come to realized the improtance of STABLE GROWTH, their is an old idiom that says "守正出奇" (maintain the traditional while seeking innovation) emphasizing the importance of maintaining traditional values while also exploring new ideas. The most important aspect of this idiom is 守正 (maintain the traditional), rather than solely seeking innovation. You may lose everthing if you only seek a new way, but if you foucus on do the regular thing right , you can become a good survivaler.

this week

• TLT from 101.35 to 101.92 up trend but weak. low than previous week
• QQQ from 354.43 to 353.15 down trending, buy in 352
• BTFP still raising from 93B TO 100B, banks pressure still exist.
• TGA from 49B TO 45B , Treasury not began refill the TGA account. but "Treasury now expects that its cash balance will be approximately $425 billion at the end of June." their is 400B selling pressure in next 2 weeks.
• Unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%, Initial Jobless Claims 266k high than expected. but Continuing Jobless Claims is low than expected and previous week.
• Crude Oil Imports high than expected.
• Services PMI (May)54.9, high than previous month, low than expected.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Treasury Security holds from 1518B to 1531B, banks is stable and not selling bonds.
• Week0531(privious week) Commercial Banks Deposits from 17235B to 17283B, banks is stable in total.

us economic is still in hot, and didn't see signal of recession.

events:

• Canada raise interest rates unexpectedly in Wendnesday, cause TLT price decline. the economic return hot when Canada stop hike rates.

strategy

now position:

next:

• holding QQQ and ZROZ , wait more datas.
• short holding TMV (15%), wait bonds goes down.