chatgpt是怎么出来的： 当强化学习，深度学习遇到瓶颈时，大家隐约发现了scaling law，更大的数据意味着更强的智能，在图像识别，人脸识别等领域都是如此，目前数据最多的人类知识库就是自然语言，于是从自然语言入手，gpt-1，gpt-2 gpt-3，不断扩充数据，模型规模，期望达到能在自然语言上对话的能力。最后在gpt-3.5成功了，自然语言chat是ai最新最振奋人心的突破方向。

沿着这个scaling law，特斯拉迅速转型，把fsd从人工代码建模，什么空间算法，运动算法，碰撞算法全不用了，完全转向ai，用数据去训练，得到了巨大的提升，使自动驾驶看到了希望

机器人的突破，比自然语言的突破更难的原因是数据，自动驾驶还有特斯拉的大量数据，可以直接拿来训练，市面上的机器人基本还处在特斯拉早期的人工写代码阶段，希望在特斯拉，英伟达已经开始了用ai来驱动机器人的探索，数据没有就人工制造，他们招人戴上vision pro，遥控机器人进行任务，这些遥控数据= 自动驾驶领域人类司机的驾驶数据，能让机器人学会走路，搬东西，扛炸药包往前冲等各种指令，只是受限于数据规模，会有较长时间的启动期才能走到chatgpt moment。

Body Training: Exercise Routine

Way to improve body strength, make me run better and healthier.

Monday: Lower Body Focus

1. Bodyweight squats: 3 sets of 12-15 reps
2. Lunges: 3 sets of 10 reps per leg
3. Calf raises: 3 sets of 15-20 reps
4. Glute bridges: 3 sets of 12-15 reps

Tuesday: Upper Body Focus

1. Push-ups (or modified push-ups): 3 sets of 8-12 reps
2. Dips using a chair or sturdy surface: 3 sets of 8-12 reps
3. Plank hold: 3 sets of 30-60 seconds
4. Superman holds: 3 sets of 30 seconds

Wednesday: Rest or Light Cardio (e.g., easy run or walk)

Thursday: Core Focus

1. Crunches: 3 sets of 15-20 reps
2. Russian twists: 3 sets of 20 reps (10 per side)
3. Mountain climbers: 3 sets of 30 seconds
4. Bird dogs: 3 sets of 10 reps per side

Friday: Full Body Circuit

Perform this circuit 3 times, resting 1-2 minutes between circuits:

1. Jump squats: 12 reps
2. Push-ups: 10 reps
3. Alternating lunges: 10 reps per leg
4. Plank to downward dog: 10 reps
5. Burpees (without push-up): 8 reps

Saturday: Active Recovery (light jog or yoga)

Sunday: Rest

14 days glucose monitor

record

Day 1:

• The gray line is yeasterday I start wear my glucose monitor device
• Yesterday's dinner is 土豆沙锅粉,add on eggs, mushroom in it, glucose is quick peak at 7.8, then I eat sneak at 21:00 make my glucose slight up and quickly down.
• Breakfast is sanwich , glucose peak at 7.4.
• Lauch is 花菜，山药，青椒炒肉，with little rice, and I start walking 50 minutes, the glucose is very healy, you can see the glucose line slightly up to 5.8 then down.
• Dinner is eat late at 8:00,煮泡面+鸡蛋+海带苗。 that is very terriable , my glucose fast soar to 9.2. I should eat less and healthy in Dinner

Day 2:

• Breakfast: sanwich + a apple. glucose peak at 8.3, I think I should reduce apple, maybe half apple is better.
• Other Data lost, because the monitor problem,

Day 3:

• Breakfast: 水果麦片+milk+half apple.
• Lunch: 黄焖鸡米饭，+ juice , 黄焖鸡is good，sugar level rise slowly and peak at, but the orange juice is terrible

2024-11-11

• Breakfast: 4 eggs + lettuce
• Lunch: 红烧鸡块盖浇饭 浇汁吃完，米粉没怎么吃

浇汁含糖，血糖爆炸，注意浇汁！

2024-11-12

• Breakfast: 肉包 + 烧卖 + milk + 3 eggs , no walking
• Lunch: 一些杂菜，红薯，酸辣汤，西红柿鸡蛋，花蛤
• Dinner: 零食+阳光玫瑰提子

零食和阳光玫瑰爆炸了，早餐没活动，久坐也导致爆炸了

2024-11-13

• Breakfast: 肉包 + 烧卖 + milk + 3 eggs
• Lunch: Rice + 土豆丝+ 肉饼蒸蛋 + 酸菜 +鸡腿+ 6k steps
• Dinner: 土豆炖鸡+ Rice + 8km run

6k setps can't reduce the sugar level when eating rice+ potato. so I eat massive potato and rice in dinner and try find out how much exercise handle this level carbohydate. running 8km is works, the glucose level is very good, but when I stop running, the glucose level return to go up.

2024-11-14

• Breakfast: 肉包 + 烧卖 + milk + oatmeal
• Lunch: 黄焖鸡米饭汤汁吃完 + 8k setps
• Dinner: 青椒炒肉+ 青菜香菇 + 少量米饭

2024-11-15

• Breakfast: 肉包 + 烧卖 + milk + 4 eggs
• Lunch: 青椒肉丝盖浇饭（菜吃完+少量米饭）
• Dinner: 麦片牛奶+土豆红烧肉+皮蛋，a orange after dinner

Today's glucose range is good, keep it.

2024-11-16

• Breakfast: 肉包 + 烧卖 + milk + 4 eggs + white kidney bean extract 1g

Personal coupon growth formula:

Personal Coupon Growth = Body × Knowledge: (Language & Logic) × Information × Action

• Information and Action make me go faster.
• Body and Knowledge enable me to go further.

move less, train more.

Steady but boring: My selling put strategy

graph TD
    A[Start] -->|Bullish or Neutral on NVDA| B{Sell NVDA Put at<br>OTM 2-3%  }
    B -->|Premium Received| C[Buy QQQ]
    B --> D{Monitor Put}
    D -->|Premium < 30%| E[Close Position]
    E --> F[Reassess Market]
    F -->|Bullish on NVDA| G[Sell New Put]
    F -->|Neutral/Bearish| H[Wait for Better Entry]
    D -->|14-21 DTE| I{OTM by > 3%?}
    I -->|Yes| J[Let Expire]
    I -->|No| K{Consider Rolling}
    K -->|Roll| L[Roll to Next Week/Month]
    K -->|Don't Roll| M[Prepare for Potential Assignment]
    D -->|< 14 DTE & ITM| N[Roll or Prepare for Assignment]
    N -->|Roll| O[Roll to Next Week/Month at<br> Higher Strike]
    N -->|Assign| P[Sell Covered Call on NVDA]
    P --> Q{Monitor Call}
    Q -->|Premium < 30%| R[Close Call]
    Q -->|Near Expiration| S{ITM?}
    S -->|Yes| T[Roll Up and Out]
    S -->|No| U[Let Expire]
    B & P --> V{Weekly Review}
    V --> W[Adjust Strategy if Needed]
    W --> B

Investing in A-Share Stock Market: My 2 Strategies

In Comparison to the U.S. Stock Market, The China stock market is notably riskier than its U.S. counterpart. with its performance often closely tied to government policies. to avoid high risk. I've two strategies:

1. Tracking Policy Updates and Market Sentiment

   • Stay Informed: Closely follow policy republish meetings and key announcements.
   • Experience-Based Insight: Utilize your market experience to assess whether these updates will likely draw significant investor interest.

2. Contrarian Approach: Timing the Market

   • Peak Identification: Pinpoint moments when the market reaches exceptionally high levels.
   • Sentiment-Driven Action: Consider short positions when market enthusiasm peaks, indicating potential over-optimism.

Whenever I reach my goals or await the outcome, a profound emptiness settles in, leaving me uncertain about my next steps.

The wait is unbearable - isolated and unsupported, I find myself irresistibly drawn to distractions, constantly refreshing for updates to kill time, and craving conversation. Yet, waiting is an indispensable life lesson. I must harness this time for introspection, learning, and self-improvement.

For if I succumb to the allure of fleeting gratifications, I risk forfeiting the potential for true liberation.

When emptiness:

• ❌ Surfing and refreshing for updates, seeking talks.
• ✅ Reading, Listing podcast, Reflective Writing.
• ✅ Exercise, Meditation, Walking.
• ✅ Planing.

Selling puts is a good strategy to earn money when the price is steady or slightly up. The pain comes from:

• When the price goes up quickly, you see that the profit is much smaller than if you had bought the stock.
• When the price goes down, you lose money equivalent to the price drop.

If you can bear the pain of not getting as much profit as buying stock, that small and steady profit will start to accumulate, and you will see the power of compounding.

I just changed the blog template to make it simpler. I also added a cat to my blog, so I'm not as lonely now 😊.

from:

to:

What I need to do in the short term to recover from training:

• Training Body: Recover from running, keep weight under 70kg.
• Training Mind: Build a system to listen, read, and write. Try to build models.

Howard Marks interview with Nicolai Tangen

Howard Marks, the author of the book "Mastering the Market Cycle" and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. He is joined by Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, discussed investment philosophy, cycles, and how he absorbs information.

Investment philosophy

Howard marks introduced his investment philosophy:

1. Risk control.
2. Consistency.
3. Market efficiency, only target less efficient markets.
4. Specialization, know more than everybody else about a few things.
5. Not relying on macroeconomic forecasts.
6. Not timing the market.

Thoes philosophy was coming from his experience of the limits of knowledge. because investing is not a science, it's dealing with a lot of people, people have feelings, their behavior is unpredictable. Randomness is a big part of investing. Especially in the short term, stupid people get rich, you can't verify the quality of the decision by the outcome.

Howard think the key element of success is aggressiveness, timing, and skill. If you aggressive enough and in the right time, you don't need too much skill, but if you want success repeatedly, you need skill.

Howard believes that the market is cyclical, because people's greed and fear. When market is crazy high or crazy low, he think it's chance to make money based on the foreacst. The only problem is extreme high or low is too rare.

Risk management

Howard Marks emphasized that risk management is not risk avoidance, risk avoidance usually means return avoidance, if you want to profit, you have to take risk. and you can't take money just by taking risk, you have to do it skillfully.

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. Under any sets of circumstances, any outcome is possible. excessive certainty is dangerous. Aknowledge the limits of knowledge is our friend. If everything looks perfect, it's dangerous. Example:

• In late 2023, the consensus think Fed will cut 6 times in 2024, but the Fed only said they will cut 3 times. the consensus is too optimistic.

In Oaktree, Howard resisted having risk control department, because he think risk control is the responsibility of everybody.

Games

Howard think games is very helpful to investment:

1. It's risk taking
2. It's all about probabilistic, assessing the probability is very important.

Annie Duke, a PHD in decision analysis, also a poker world champion, wrote a book called "Thinking in Bets", she approached poker professionally, analytically, and with discipline. She helps people to think about the structuring bets. Example:

• In basketball game, when you bet on the popular team, if you win, you don't get much. but sometimes the payoff is better when you bet on the unpopular team.

Contrairianism

Contrairianism means beting against the consensus, usually the payoff is better. It's doesn't mean routinely think what is the consensus think and do the opposite, you need to think what is the consensus think, why they do that and why they are wrong. why they do that way.

If you want to be a contrarian person, you need to be comfortable with loneliness, you have to dare to be different. you have to dare to be wrong. Howard has a good partner, Bruce Karsh, they support each other, that make them more easy to overcome the loneliness.

It's more easy to be contrarian in the frothy than in the fearful market. Howard use a barometer to measure the market, like the temperature. He look at the oppinion of the people, how uniform they are, how satisfied they are, how strong they are.

Information flow

Howard's information flow is very simple, he read a newspapers, he consume 2-3 newspapers a day and read "The Economist", what the most important is not what happened, but what it means, why it happened. He try to figure out what is the temperature of the market, what is the position of the cycle.

Howard is keep eye on Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller, Seth Klarman

Advice

Howard's advice to young people is:

• If you want to be a good investor, you can't be right all the time.
• Investing is a great puzzle, you have to equip your philosophy to deal with it with many many considerations.

Book mentioned

• "Mastering the Market Cycle" by Howard Marks
• "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke
• "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Memory - Charan Ranganath in podcast with Lex Fridman

This Article is my notes from Fridman podcast, link: https://lexfridman.com/charan-ranganath

Charan Ranganath, Ph.D., is a Professor of Psychology at the University of California. His research focuses Memory, Cognitive Neuroscience, Neuroimaging, EEG, fMRI.

Remembering self

What we remember is not the record that we experienced. We remember the highlights, the best parts, and the bad parts. it's missing a lot of the details.

Our brain is optimized for learn what is most useful in the past and knowning the present and to predicting the future. We usually predict the future right, the bus which you take will not exploded, so you get a illusion that you know everything what will happen. When the illusion is broken, we find something error, that error is the key to learning. the error is where the learning happens.

Do things that are very unpleasant in the moment, because they can potentially provide meaningful memories, stories, or lessons that can be appreciated and enjoyed for many years afterward.

If you having shared difficult, unpleasant, or trying circumstances with other people. Those are the things that you remember the most, and make people feel closer to each other.

Why we don't look back enough? Because we often lack the confidence that they can successfully overcome or face the challenges that they have faced in the past. the actual capability to accomplish tasks or get things done in difficult moments is better than just believing that you can do it. The darker it gets, the better the story will be if you emerge on the other side.

Adolescence

Adolescence is much more important than many people realize. Teenage years are so important for the development of the brain.

People think parents consequential in forming child by making every decision. It does, but not all, children are also forming themselves.

children is learning how to get along with other people, learning who they are and how they function at the adolescent stage. that's more important than the content that children are learning in school. if they get an perfect parent working on them, that can be terribly traumatizing.

Why human don't remember much of the first few years of life?

1. hippocampus taking some time to develop.
2. neocortex is developing rapidly and changing.
3. child's self-sense takes time to develop.

In the first few years of life, kid's internal model if changing rapidly. that is not a bad thing, actually, brain is very evolved to optimize for different stages of life. like prefrontal cortex which is helps us use our knowledge to archive our goals, its takes forever to develop.

1. childhood, frontal cortex is massively reforming. as a child they wander around, they need to learn about the world the culture, the language, the people, the rules. they need to explore. they want to be free, they don't want to be tight, they didn't know what their goals are.
2. young adult, 10 years prime functioning, because they have to hunt and forage, they need to raise child, they need stay focused on the big picture and the long term goals.
3. older, going down and end up being losing all that frontal function. in our society, older is no longer responsible for hunting for studying, they are responsible for teaching, for guiding, to pass on the knowledge to the next generation.

Different types of memory

Episodic memory, semantic memory, working memory, short-term memory, long-term memory, what are the differences between them?

Researchers want to model things for experimental purposes, but in reality, they are all interconnected.

Working memory was coined by Alan Baddeley, its a short-term memory to keep and control the flow of that information in mind, to manipulate it, to use it, to make decisions based on it. we have the alibity that passively storing information, but what is more important is that we also have ability to control the flow of information that's being kept active based on what we are doing.

This working memory, some researchers call short-term memory, is not at all independent from long-term memory.

Working memory help us create internal models of events, help us predict, interpret, example: when you at a child's birthday party, when you just see a candle, you can predict the whole events that happens later. but to build that model, you need to retrieve the knowledge from the Semantic memory, and you need to retrieve the memories for specific events that happened in the past, that's Episodic memory.

How to improve memory

You don't want remember more, you want remember better. brain is designed to use the least amount of energy to get the less information. so if you want to remember everything, it's already failed. It's all about reusing information, making the most of what we already have.

When you are suprise, fear, stress, etc, your brain is realsing a lot of chemicals like norerpinephrine, dopamine, serotonin, those improve the priority of the information that you are processing, and help it memory better.

Attention is a big factor in memory. and attention is something that you can train. How we allocate our attention and how we hold attention on a thing is important. If you are an expert in something, you are training attention.

Memory Palace is a good technique, it's provide a structure for the information, give you the clues to retrieve the information.

Space repetition is another good technique, if you repeat the information over time, you can retain the information better. what behind this is memory is compete, if you remember this information in different times in different places, it's more accessible to you.

Test yourself, when you test fail, you get the error, you get the mismatch, that error is the key for our nerual network to learn. If you constantly pushing yourself to your limit, you will retain the information better. If you are feeling comfortable, you are not learning.

Find the error may let you feel uncomfortable, unconfident, lost hope, You may very very don't want to do it because of this fear, it's hard, but when you get over it, you will realize, that's the best way to learn.

Imagination and actual memory

where did the mental experience come form?

what is the diffrience between we remember something that is happen, and we thinking about something.

prefrontal cortex foucusing on the sensory information

we don't replay the past, we imagine how the past could have been by taking bits and pieces that come up in our heads.

imagination is fundamentally coupled with memory in both directions.

Memory sport example

A guy named Scott Hagwood, he has a cancer, he should treat it by chemo, but he afraid that chemo will badly affect his memory, so he want to train his memory skills. He buy a book, and practice it over and over again, and then he go to the memory competition, and win the bet.

The competition usually competition on the arbitary thing, like long list of numbers, words, or cards.

Navigation and memory

When rats puts in a box and chase the cheese, their cell in the hippocampus fire when in diffrence places in the box. So hippocampus forms a map of the box.

And our brain is effectively learning new things based on the old experiences. If you familiar with your local IKEA, you can easily know navigate in another IKEA. you can use the old map everywhere.

Rather than bascially mapping every coordinate in a space, the brain is form a graph of the space economically. It connects the major landmarks, important things, fill blanks with the details. It contains verifiable details and lots infrences.

Explain FMRI, how it measure brain activity

blood flow in the brain, blood didn't have oxygen on it, is magnetic than blood with oxygen. so we can use the magnetic to see the blood flow in the brain.

When we get a movie of the brain activity, we can observe the brain activity in different regions of the brain.

You can measure brain activity by FMRI after 6 seconds of the actual event. Because the blood flow is slow and so much back and forth in the brain.

Most of cells in the brain are not neurons, they are glial cells, they are supporting the neurons.

Major discoveries in memory

there is so many discoveries and hard to summarize, Charan mentioned a few:

• Our continuous experience is broken into discrete events and stored in memory.
• Study of how much we forget.
• Study of how expertise can memory so much things.
• Discovery of act remembering and change the memory. Strenthen the memory, or weaken the memory, or distort the memory by misinformation.

What is the similarity in humans and mice.

Human is not a big mouse, we got a lot of differences.

1. sensory information is very different. rats explore the world largely by smell.
2. we have language, and social structure.

How does deja vu work?

Deja vu is a experience of feeling like you have been in there before. experience this moment before.

Its artificial memory, mixed things fire together, make you feel like you have been there before.

How do false memories form?

Some times little distortion in filling the blanks in the memory.

If a person think he has a cancer, and he see a doctor, the doctor say things is as your expect. the person will remember the doctor say he has a cancer, but the doctor didn't say that.

The act of remembering can change the memory. if you remember something, and I told you something about the thing you remember, and then somethimes you might remember the original thing and mix it with the new thing I told you.

Social contagion is misinformation spread like a virus. we remember same thing, but I give you a little bit of wrong information, that information become your story of what happened. You and I share memory, I tell you the experience, you tell me the experience, we share the memory, and that become Our memory. The more you trust that person, or the more powerful that person is, the more they can influence your memory.

False memory implant example: During McCain vs. Bush Jr. primary, a poll asked voters: "if they'd still support McCain if he had an illegitimate black child". Many remembered this false info, and McCain lost the election.

People's sense of collective identity is very tied to shared memories. if we have a shared past, we will feel more socially connected. When some people weponize the history, that's scary.

When a group have people who are very dominant, group remembers less from the past, remember more of what the dominant person said.

When a group have a diverse group of people, and give everyone a chance to speak and everyone s being appreciated for their unique contribution, we can get more accurate memory and get more information. but that's require tolerance for discomfort, it's hard especially when we are tired, stressed.

Constant state of wanting

When you get a paycheck every month from your job, you wouldn't get excited about it. That adaptation is a major way connected to strive and not be happy. We are designed to be constantly wanting.

Dopamine is not a pleasure chemical, it's discomfort that energizes you to seek a reward. You can both use the dopamine to motivate you to do things, or you can study this discomfort and tell yourself that you don't want to hear it, its disgrees with your beliefs.

Torture can make people remember anything

CIA, and other justice department, has long history let people say that they want to hear, not necessarily the truth through torture. Their is serval reasons:

1. People get tired of being tortured, they just say whatever.
2. They set a authority figure, keep pressure and keep telling the person he is do this, and the person start to question himself. People in weakened mental state and be guided to remember the false memory.

Heartbreak

Memory is designed to capture things that biologically significant, and relationship is a big part. Sometimes heartbreak comes with massive changes in your beliefs about somebody or regret about what you did.

Lost not only comes from the relationship is over, but also from all the good things. You can change the perspective and grow to new ways.

Feeling of time

Mermory does weird things to time, if you think now and one hour ago, you may sense many differences. But if you think one year ago and one year and a hour ago, you may feel like it's the same time.

During the pandemic, people feel days are long, but weeks are short. Because people are doing the same thing at the same context. nothing is changing, memory is little, so they feel time is short in the long term.

That is because memory shapes our sense of time, and context is so important for memory.

Nostalgia

Felipe de Burgarde, think of nostalgia as a disease, because it bringing people extraordianry unhappiness. But when people get older, nostalgia can be an enormous source of happiness, but it may has the opposite effect if you thinking old days are better than now, and it's over.

Brain computer interface

BCI is developing very interesting techonology like surgical robots. And it has lots of innovation in the future.

Can we modify memory?

In some sense, we can do it behaviorally. like giving pressure, giving misinformation, etc.

But we didn't know what is the memory, Memory is so complicated.

LLM

Social system is complex, like a intersection, every intersection has its own personality, In Boston vs New York vs rural town they are all diffrerent. people are behave dynamically.

What LLM do to solve the problem is to collect a huge amount of data, they don't understand human behavior and what they think, but they can represent how people cross streets.

attention is the core to be intelligent.

Connection between ADHD and memory

Charan is been told he has ADHD, ADHD is associated with differences in preforntal funciton. Attention is shift easily, memory tends to be poor.

People with ADHD often have great memory for the things that they're interested in, and poor memory for the things that they're not interested in.

How to learn, remember things better

Be a science is enormously enabling of ADHD, you're constantly looking for new things, you're constantly seeking dopamine hit, and people tolerate your late for things. You can freely follow your curiosity.

Structure activities is important, you should learn how to allocate attention. set event boundaries, avoid switch, and goofing time is not wasting time, its an investment for attention.

Multitasking is very bad for memory, according Melina Uncapher's research.

Cal Newport wrote a book called "Deep Work", it's about how to foucs and how to allocate attention.

How Charan become a musician

Charan play trumpet in school, and he start to play guitar, but he just can't got it. it's different from trumpet, he got a lot time to practice, but it's now work.

Since Charan saw bands like Sonic Youth, it blew his mind, he was struggling because he try to write popular music at the time, and what sounded like other bands. he didn't enjoy try to play stuff that other people play.

So he start play what he like, didn't follow others style, and explore the possibilities of different sounds. it's actually fun, the whold world opened up to him.

What Charan like most about human mind

The idea of the internal model, every thing you see, you touch, is connected by internal model.

People needed to hear from scientists, and people didn't get the uncertainty of science and how much we don't know. So he write this book.

difficult unpleasant experiences cause meaningful memories and

• Biden: Kill SEC's Crypto Accounting Policy, Ethereum ETFs, hiring a meme manager.
• Biden: Open war on hidden "junk fees" like airline and bank fees.
• Biden: Blind on Iran's sanctions, Iranian oil reaching Europe freely.

Biden can't tackle the INFLATION, so the path of least resistance is obvious: Do whaterver he can to get the votes, even though it's insignificant to solve the problem.

This is my learn note on the podcast. Follow me to get more. reference:

• Biden’s Open War on Hidden Fees
• MacroVoices #429 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Oil Market Outlook, Iran & Energy Geopolitics

#hashtag: LearnThroughPodcast ValidEnglish

tk发了一条微博：“美国从红州限堕胎到到蓝州零元购，中国从《妇女儿童权益保护法》到医药集采，背后都是同一个原理。我在私下给一些朋友详细讲过这个政府第一性原理。可惜不能在这里说。但看了上面这四个仿佛完全扯不到一起去的例子，也许有人能自己想明白。想明白了这个原理，不仅能理解很多事情，也能预测很多事情。 ”

限制坠胎是Roe坠胎案被推翻，导致在联邦层面失去坠胎合法权 0元购是2014出的法案，盗窃950元以下商品等罪行从重罪降为轻罪，原因是加州等地方监狱人满为患

我的猜测是：这几个case都涉及到利益的再平衡，平衡就涉及到+和-，决策符合大多数人要求，但特别是0元购和坠胎案都广受诟病，坠胎案甚至一度让Republican掉了很多选票。是不是说涉及到复杂关系的时候，决策方永远选择短期阻力最小的路径去演化

My Information System

在信息大爆炸，碎片化的时代，我能随时获取到各种信息，但低质量，信息单一的陷阱离我很近。如何建立起一套个人的信息感知、探索，整理，总结的一套系统对我非常重要。

achieved?	goal	time	method	can improve?	feedback
🐝	Absorb Enlgish Materials regularly	2023-12-31	input,output	yes,I should create a daily routine	?

1. read a book every week.
2. Listen to 3 podcast carefully every week (write summary at blog).
3. Listen 4 podcast get the rough idea every week.
4. Shadowing 1 audio everyday, correct the pronunciation.

records:

• [ ] 2024-01
• [x] 2023-12

Some notes on English

Speaking

important things:

• say the subject first, then describe it
  • I see a girl, with long black hair
  • She eat a carrot that I bought yeasterday
• stress the important words.
• control the speed, don't speak too fast. make sure I can
• express the thought process, when I am thinking, tell others to hold on, wait a second.

sentence

• he wearing a mask
• the thing that xx

What I Mispronounced

• specific
• lauch, lunch
• thing, sing, scene
• top
• spontaneous
• ant
• clear
• really, family
• kind
• leg

IPA

group	type	symbol
vowel	front vowels	i, ɪ, e, ɛ, æ
vowel	back vowels	u, ʊ, o, ɑ,ɔ
vowel	central vowels	ʌ,ə
vowel	combined vowels	ɑi, ɑʊ, ɔɪ

The 401k is a dominant retirement plan in the U.S. This year, 4.1 million Americans turn 65 years old, but 49% of people aged 55-65 have nothing in their 401k account, and 10%-20% of retired people live in poverty. Why does the 401k not work as expected? And why is this a problem that will damage belief in the capitalist system?

Before the 401k, in the 50s to 70s, the U.S. had a pension system in the private sector. People would work in a company for 30 or more years, and the company would guarantee a fixed retirement income for the rest of their life. It worked well against the backdrop of lifetime employment and people not living as long as they do now.

The 401k came about by accident. It began when companies wanted to reward their executives, so they created a tax-deferred account to pay bonuses to their executives. The managers could get the money when they retired or left the company. There was a risk whether the IRS would tax the money, but in 1978, Congress passed a law to make it legal. That's how Section 401(k) came about. A retirement specialist, Ted Benna, found this law and used it to create a retirement plan for his company. He provided a matching contribution to his employees. If employees put money in the 401k account, the company would match the same amount of money. It was a win-win situation. The company got rid of the responsibility of the guaranteed pension system, and employees got extra money, tax benefits, and investment growth.

Why did the 401k become dominant in the U.S.? 1) The auto and steel industries declined, and a lot of corporations regarded pensions as a problem. 2) Reaganomics advocated individual responsibility, and the 401k shifted the responsibility from the employer to the employees.

Who can benefit from a 401k? Those who are high-income, disciplined, and have good investment knowledge. They don't need retirement money to live. But who falls out of the system? Those who are low-income, whose company didn't provide a 401k, or they didn't know how to invest, or they had to withdraw the money for an emergency.

The 401k reinforced income inequality. The rich get richer, of course, that tool was first designed for rich people. And normal people benefited from it due to government legislation. That is a common American model, normal people benefit from the elite's move. But the inequality still exists, millions of people falling through the cracks of the retirement system make the country driven toward socialism.

How to solve the problem? There is a plan called the Thrift Savings Plan. It's a retirement plan for federal employees, and Congress is considering expanding it to all Americans. When a company can't provide the matching contribution, the government will provide it.

Will it reduce income inequality? We still don't know, but one thing is clear, in the U.S., a comfortable retired life relies on the individual to make it happen. Retirement is a privilege, not a right.

This article is my learn note on the podcast. Follow me to get more. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/podcasts/the-daily/401k-retirement.html

#hashtag: LearnThroughPodcast ValidEnglish

Free Will

Robert Sapolsky, an American neuroscientist and professor at Stanford, is hailed as the best science writer. His famous books include "Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst", "Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers", and his latest book: "Determined".

This book is about free will. Everybody thinks they have free will because they can choose, as we know there are alternatives available to us. Sapolsky's point is that choice is not the key to free will. How did you become the sort of person who would have that intent at that point? The answer is because of the biology over which you have no control, interacting with the environment over which you have no control. Genes and environment determine who you are. There is no place for the intuitive notion of free will.

What is distributed causality? How does it influence our actions and decisions?

Our behaviors, our decisions, went on in the neurons a 10th of a second ago. But what stimuli got those neurons to do what?

• Environment like morning's hormone levels
• Plasticity of the brain in the previous months to decades, Trauma, heartache, finding love, finding god, all of those things change the brain.
• Person's adolescence and childhood and fetal life, genes, culture, the way mothers raise their children.

Our brain was being shaped by all of these things. Distributed causality is the idea that the causes of our behavior are distributed across all of these levels.

There is a famous example in neuroscience, the case of Phineas Gage, a railroad worker who had a metal rod go through his head, and he survived. But he developed poor regulation of his behavior. It explains that the frontal cortex is important for regulating behavior.

And there is an experiment that lets people choose to shoot or not based on guessing if the other person's hand is a cell phone or a handgun. And it turns out that all sorts of things modulate people's ability to decide what they're seeing in a fraction of a second. This includes factors like being hungry, tired, stressed, scared, the environment being dangerous or benevolent, and the person's skin color. It shows that the brain will make different decisions based on all of these things in the previous hour.

A study of a bunch of parole board judges is highly likely to predict the outcome of a parole hearing based on how long it has been since the judge had a meal.

We are changed by circumstances

Two people went to the same movie. When they finished the movie, they were both changed. One person says "oh my God, that was so inspirational," and then gave his life savings away to Doctors Without Borders. The other person says "oh my God, the cinematography was so amazing in that movie, I'm going to go to film school." They were both changed by the movie, but in different ways.

Yes, they were both changed. Neither of them chose to change, they were changed by experiences. That is exactly where we get sort of prescriptions.

We, as biological machines, have some insight as to where the buttons and levers are, and to understand what makes certain types of changes more readily happening than others.

There is a whole world of changes you could bring about in people. For example, dictators, ideologues, and genocidal individuals intuitively know how to change people.

If we've been trained to respect that process and reflect on it and understand it, keep these recursive loops building and we can know our machineness.

AI and Free Will

Free will is an emergent property. With enough quantity, you invent quality and out will pop not only consciousness.

The emergence of the individual is really simple, and what's amazing is the simple individual inventing things like philosophy.

Emergence is the coolest thing on earth, from the ants and the individual neurons to suddenly doing stuff that they can't do. The different molecules that make up H2O and how they interact and produce wetness as an emergent property.

If you put enough ants together, they not only construct an amazing ant society and colony and architecture in their passageways, but they suddenly have the emergent property of being able to speak French.

Frontal Cortex evolution

The frontal cortex is the last part of the brain to mature. It's not fully mature until you're about 25 years old. We have evolved to delay maturation.

The frontal cortex's job is going to be make you do the harder thing. but what is the right thing will take you long time to learn.

Frontal cortex evolution make us as free from genes as possible.

Different mothering styles

How culture shapes the brain, mothering styles is a good example.

In collectivist cultures, like those in Southeast Asia and rice-growing regions, people tend to be more cooperative. They often work collectively with other villages to harvest rice in a single day. The parenting style in these cultures typically involves responding quickly when a baby cries.

In individualist cultures, like those in North America, people tend to be more independent and self-reliant. The parenting style in these cultures typically involves responding to a crying baby a bit later.

Even without free will, there is still steerability

How do you become the person who knows what constitutes a healthy diet?

How did you develop into the sort of person with a frontal cortex that could make you stick with that resolution?

How did you become someone who was fortunate enough to live in a neighborhood where fresh food is readily available?

Remember, all these things are influenced by a tremendous amount of biology and environment. Think about it in a logical way. Do the hard work, go back and remember that all we are is the end product of what came before.

I used to believe that if I keep learning, keep trying, I can live however I like, can be a brand new person. But now I have to admit that is wrong, I'm a person, my parents' son, Chinese, introverted. It's my nature.

I can't change myself, but I can make myself stronger, more resilient, more capable.

Democracies: The restraint of leaders in their rhetoric during heated elections is a key indicator. Autocracies: The ability to self-correct when wrong is crucial.

Study of Probability

Lesson 1: Probability models and axioms

topic	details
What is probability?	a framework that dealing with uncertainty How to setup a probability model? basic rules of
Probability models Sample space Discrete Sample space	Sample space, sets 1. list should be mutually exclusive 2. should be collectively exhaustive You can also use T+ H , raining, + H, not raining in coin flip, it's allowed Discrete Sample space, Dice experiment Use a sequential description or tree-based description it's 2 stage. It's has a sample space which is finite.
Continuous Sample space	sample space is infinite. assign probabilities to individual outcome has zero probability, so we assign probabilities to subsets
Ground rules	1. probabilities be number between 0 to 1 2. Probabilities should be Non-negativity: $$P(A)>=0$$ 3. total probabilities sum=1, $$P(\Omega)=1$$ 4. Additivity: if A and B have no common, then $$if A\cap B=\Theta , P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)$$ union of 3 sets,$$ P(A\cup B\cup C) = P((A\cup B)\cup C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)$$ it can repeat to any N sets. if A1....Am, disjoint.
subtleties	1. Additivity axiom doesn't quite do the job for everything we would like to do 2. has to do with weird sets, An event is a subset of the sample space, does this mean that we are going to assign probability to every possible subset of the sample space? -- we'd like to, but not always possible, but we are not going to encounter these sets
laws	Discrete uniform law: if all outcomes are equally likely(N of them ). then p(A)=1/N Continuous uniform law: Probability = Area P(X,Y)=0 , any point area =0

Lesson 2: Conditioning and Bayes' rule

All informations is always partial, what do we do to probabilities if we have some partial informations?

this lesson introduce 3 very useful ways, these ways break problem to simple pieces. infer things we have not seen.

Topic	details
Review	set up a model, first is come up with list of all possible outcomes. this is a sample space. 1. distinguishable from each other 2. mutually exclusive how to choose your sample space, depending on how much details you want to capture. its a art. assign subsets, disjoint subsets behave like masses, 0 probability things is not impossible, its only very very low possible. problem solving: - Specify sample space - Define probability law - Identify event of interest - Calculate
New information	you set up a model, and somebody give you a New Information, we should revise our beliefs. $$P(A\mid B) = Probability\ of\ A, given\ that\ B\ occurred$$
How do we revise the probability that A occurs?	Intuitively reasonable way: P(A|B)= part of the A in B.= 2(1+2) definition: $$P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{ P(B)}$$ so P A intersection B is the probability of B times the conditional probability $$P(A\cap B)= P(B)P(A\mid B) =P(A)P(B\mid A)$$

Lesson 3

Scarce resources for person:

• Time
• Logic
• Information

And inflation is also drive by Svarcity, if resources are scarce, the price will rise. = money/product, In the long term, product increases drive the inflation down. so the monetary policy is the key dimension to control the inflation in the short term.

#hashtag: investment

I'm shorting Bonds, waiting is so hard, especially face the loss. be patient, be rational!

When the U.S. manufacturing industry moved to Japan, Korea, China, lots of other jobs were created for people.

How will normal people live after AI replaces most of the jobs? That is an interesting question to investigate.

• 1. How has the manufacturing industry changed in the past?
• 2. Look at the current trend of AI replacing jobs

How will the U.S. Navy remove the collapsed bridge from the water? the bridge is so heavy that it can't be lifted by a crane. bomb it? that's a interesting engineering problem. the news is show they are planning to cut it into pieces and use multiple cranes to lift it. I will keep an eye on how they do it.

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-update-death-toll/60341894

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AA9mNVX6YEe5j_aKCT3pmQ

这本书主要说的是全球的人口老龄化导致一系列的危机，可能超出人的预期，这也是我们现在预期中国未来30年陷入日本化的主要论据

截至目前，它完全正确，但是它忽略了一个变量：ai robot， 人口老龄化的速度远远慢于ai在生产制造领域替代的速度。

对未来有没有信心，可以以现在为坐标，观察：

• 农业机械化智能化的升级速度，生产装备降价速度是否大于 劳动人口的下降速度。
• 工业生产领域的巨头增长速度，反应出来的，汽车，电子消费品，生活用品的价格下降速度
• 能源生产成本，光伏每度电的发电成本

据我观察，这些指标都在以肉眼可见的速度下降，很多gpt moment会不断涌现，短期我在实际押注的是特斯拉的 FSD GPT MOMENT, elon 说不是今年就是明年，我相信它.

通胀，通屁涨，准备迎接由生产力提升带来的优质通缩吧，美好的日子要来了.

#hashtag: investment

FOMC Metting and Powell's dovish speech drive the stock market up. I guess it's low risk to hold stocks until 03/29 PCE data out.

#hashtag: investment

NAR's settlement allowed NAR to pay $418 million to recent buyers and modify the rules to potentially reduce commission fees. This could lower housing costs and ease some inflation pressure.

#hashtag: investment

Nasdaq-100 analysis @ 2024-03-22

Nasdaq-100 index is a good long term invest target. Can I beat the index? here is my try.

My strategy is to hold index as long as possible, no matter if it's rising or falling. but I will take leverage when the index is low risk, and hold no leverage when high risk(price is high, inflation etc. ). So the risk prediction is the key point.

Lets begin, how I judge the risk of Nasdaq-100 index, its composed of 2 parts:

1. Economic situation:
   • Inflation:
     • Tech company will be hurted when in inflation situation.
   • Economic growth:
     • GDP, PMI, Employment, sales etc.
2. Single stock situation, is the major company in the index growing well?

Economic situation

key events:

• 2024-03-12: CORE CPI MoM 0.4% higher than expected.
• 2024-03-14: PPI MoM 0.6% higher than expected.

Two month data show that inflation is continue to rise not just a single month data noise. that will be the main risk may drive index down. should pay atttention on the Fed's action. if Fed tighten the interest rate , should be more risk aversion. my strategy for now is to hold VOO(SP-500 index) and find a chance to buy TQQQ(leveraged Nasdaq-100 index) when extreme low position or Fed's action is dovish.

Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate show the economy is still hot. can still expect the company's earning growth.

Single stock

company	ratio of index	PE	EPS	growth expectation	RISK
MSFT	8.88%	37.74	11.0	high	low
AAPL	7.65%	27.03	6.46	moderate	low
NVDA	6.30%	74.13	12.06	high	high
AMZN	5.20%	60.17	2.95	moderate	moderate
META	4.86%	32.50	15.2	moderate	low
GOOGL	4.7%	24.32	5.85	low	moderate
AVGO	4.25%	45.8	27.87	moderate	low
COST	2.39%	47.47	15.31	low	moderate
AMD	2.29%	365.11	0.53	high	high
TSLA	2.26%	38.01	4.72	morderate	high
NFLX	1.94%	50.42	12.23	low	moderate
PEP	1.68%	25.1	6.59	low	moderate

high risk:

• NVDA: high PE, growth expectation is high
• AMD: high PE, growth expectation is high
• TSLA: high PE, growth low than expected

other risk

seasonal risk:

1. Months When QQQ Outperforms:
   1. November - This has historically been one of the strongest months for QQQ and the Nasdaq. From 1971-2022, QQQ averaged a 2.1% gain in November.
   2. April - The Nasdaq and tech stocks tend to see a bump in April, with QQQ averaging a 2.7% gain from 1971-2022 during this month.
   3. July - Coming out of the summer lull, July has averaged a 1.9% gain for QQQ from 1971-2022.
2. Periods of Outperformance:
   1. End of Q4/Start of Q1 - The October to January period has tended to be strong for QQQ, likely due to holiday consumer spending benefiting tech names.
   2. Summer Months - While seemingly counterintuitive, the May-August period has seen QQQ outperform from 1971-2022 versus other seasonal periods.

March is not on the list, be more cautious.

Geopolitical risk:

• red sea crisis, may make oil price surge and trade cost increase.

TK教主在微博，如果遇到一个看起来很傻又不想反驳的人，就会盲转发：“盲猜关注列表的时候又到了”，我每次去点开看那个逻辑有些奇怪的人，其关注列表都会是：军事，搞笑，娱乐类的博主。

是长期关注这些导致了人的思维和逻辑封闭，还是思维和逻辑封闭的人才会长期关注这些？估计没一个准确答案，唯一能确信的是：信息的接收渠道，信息的选择，决定着一个人。

Be patient, don't do much, follow the rational plan. grow up steadily.

澎湃新闻：“近日，MIT团队将聚变反应堆的每瓦特成本几乎降低到了1/40，让核聚变技术在商用成为了可能。”

这个新闻说的是一个MIT团队在磁约束小型化上取得的验证成果，没有特别新的突破，

MIT在搞一个类似ITER的项目SPARC，磁约束上的区别是SPARC是高温超导，ITER是低温超导， SPARC小四倍

SPARC目标是商业化，这和ITER的基础研究目标不一样，目前看SPARC更有可能实现初步的核聚变。

Never give up，未来比想象更美好，更现实

ECB's interest rate cut will boost U.S. bonds and stocks.

However, U.S. bond yields may be massively changed by the CPI data on 03/12. be cautious.

Yesterday's PCE data showed a MoM of 0.4%, which was within expectations. The market has already priced in the hot CPI and PPI data, causing a decrease in bond yield. However, this doesn't mean inflation is over. A 0.4% increase over 12 months equates to 4.8% inflation. Will it cool down? We'll need to wait for the CPI data on 03/12.

invest strategy:

• hold stock until 03/12.

#hashtag: invesment

Btc, an attention-driven business, will peak in an economic ease cycle before declining. Eventually, it'll reach an attention limit, lose public interest, and fare worse than gold.

#hashtag: invesment

Drivers of interest rate

supply:

• treasury

demand:

• Foreign investors
• Federal Reserve
• Mutual funds
• Banks
• Pension funds
• Households

short term drivers:

• Economic data and Fed's action
• Flights to safety
• Debt auctions
• Mortgage hedging flows
• Corporate bond issuance
• Exotics hedging flows
• Seasonal factors

Despite high inflation expectations, Treasury bond yields are declining, possibly due to risk aversion-driven demand before PCE release. This is evident as the stock market drops and short-term yields rise back today, while long-term yields still fall.

#hashtag: invesment

bonds review @2024-02

• long time goal: back to 2023-04-10 , 10 year treasury yield is 3.4%, TLT 106.
• short time range, around 4.2%:
  • yield > 4.1%, Economy hot and stagflation expectation. price <94.
    • if >94 then buy TMV, wait price down.
  • yield < 4.3%, FED'S goal for not too high interest rate. price >92.
    • if <92 then buy TMF, wait price up. but need to watch FED's action, not hike again.

watch

• 失业率，薪资增速

2024-02

Economic data hot , made 10-year treasury yield increase 0.1%, stable at 4.28%, TMF bottom at 52.

• support level: 4.28%?
• short term yields show 2024 rate cut 3 times. first at June, second at September, third at December.

02-01: FED PRESS CONFERENCE

• hawkish, no rate cut at March.
• 10-year treasury yield increase from 3.8% to 4.0%, to 4.16% in the next day.

02-13: Core CPI rose 0.4%

• stagflation expectation is rising. TLT price plunged %1, 10-year treasury yield from 4.17% to 4.31%
• but soon Europe ressession made yield decrease 4.2%, market is waiting for 02-16's PPI data.

02-16: PPI show economy is hot

• PPI show economy is hot, Bonds yield surge 4.29%, TMF near 52.
• but soon move back to 4.28%, TMF looks like have a bottom at 52.

TLT price ~= Treasury yield change

example: US 20-year treasury yield change from 4.4% to 4.3%,

• treasury yield change : 4.4 - 4.3 = 0.1, change =0.1/4.4 = 2.27%
• TLT price change ~= 2.27%

#hashtag: invesment

Let warring ways be banished from the world.

Let justice everywhere its carpet throw.

May Friendship reconcile ancient hatreds.

May Love grow from the seed of love we sow.

Forgive me, God, or whatever you are. Whether you forgive me or not, I don't care.

What I should do:

• Train, do my best to improve myself, no matter how hard it is, I can do it!
• Rest, this is part of training, do it!
• Create, build the list, finish the list!

I'm somewhat down today. A high amount of listening has made me not want to do anything. I'm tired!

I need some change.

Can't wait to announce that I'm a fans of the animated sitcom Family Guy.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7fZ-QNFi7amcOncIl6owxA

What happens to guns that nobody wants any more?

In U.S. police departments, many firearms are kept from confiscations, buyback programs, and other sources. There are usually 2 ways to dispose of them:

• melt it down
• destroy it by blowtorch or sledgehammer

But what people commonly don't know is that a company called Gun Busters provides a free service. They will destroy the gun by just destroying one piece like the receiver or the frame (which is allowed by law). However, the problem is that the gun isn't fully destroyed. They also sell the materials to others, and these materials can be used to make new guns.

In just one second, a little boy lost his mother in Gaza. There are thousands of unseen tragedies in the war.

前几天我买了个森海赛尔的耳机，包头的，有线，原因是我的旧的森海塞尔有线接触不良，经常需要转一转插头到一个特定位置才能听到双声道。买包头的因为想隔绝环境音+不要漏音，买有线是觉得简单，不用充电，森海的音质也好。淘宝上一般三百多，有一家店只要159。

我觉得可能是有线的买的少了，有些要清库存就低价，于是我选择了159的，等了2天，满怀激动的心情我拆开了它，刺鼻的味道，不灵活的伸缩告诉我这可能是假货，于是我准备退货，但是我知道卖假货要退一赔三，我去找店家申请。他当然是不同意的，于是我曉之以情动之以礼，顺便淘宝投诉假货，他妥协了，退款，赔我一百五，加耳机送我。

于是我拿着赔偿款可以够一够next level的耳机了，看评测，发现舒适度排行第一的耳机Sony WH CH720n， 索尼的无线耳机xm4我买过，重，不舒适，降噪虽强但是极度不适应，所以出了，这个720号称是索尼最轻的包头耳机，于是我决定给他一个机会。

已经等了两三天了，我不想再等了，京东769次日达，淘宝海外自营679，2天后达 当然是选便宜的，本来下单了，看到了同城自提只有10km，又心痒了，没骑一会，大货车呼啸带过来的灰尘让我想起一句话：“不要花时间在低于自己时间价值的事情上”，一个闪送三十块，干嘛要自己去取。来都来了只能硬着头皮去继续骑，只能安慰自己我是在体验贫穷，好让我知道没钱是多么艰难。出了绕城，来到一片工地包围的写字楼，终于拿到了货。命运的齿轮开始转动，心情从最低谷开始上升。

轻，舒适，一路回家听完2集podcast，戴着骑车也不冷，这让我很是开心，支持同时连2个设备，好好好，折腾一番，戴着跑步，稳定，还是轻，比xm4好多了，第一次体验这样安静的环境，激情的音乐，纯粹的跑步。

事件就是这样的事件，我觉得很有意思，第一次打假维权，买到超过期望的耳机，不用担心图书馆空调噪声等了。但是我喜欢强行总结点感悟，那就感悟点吧，不要花时间在低于自己时间价值的事情上面，但是花了好像也没那么糟。还是多折腾，多改变重要，总是会有惊喜。

Just came back from the New Year's Countdown Activity. 2023 is gone, the past year is full of loving memories. Thanks to all the people who have come into my life, with your love, I have the courage to face the unknown future. I love you all.

In 2024, I will do my best to love, love my family, love myself, love my friends, love the world.