bonds review @2024-02

• long time goal: back to 2023-04-10 , 10 year treasury yield is 3.4%, TLT 106.
• short time range, around 4.2%:
  • yield > 4.1%, Economy hot and stagflation expectation. price <94.
    • if >94 then buy TMV, wait price down.
  • yield < 4.3%, FED'S goal for not too high interest rate. price >92.
    • if <92 then buy TMF, wait price up. but need to watch FED's action, not hike again.

watch

• 失业率，薪资增速

2024-02

Economic data hot , made 10-year treasury yield increase 0.1%, stable at 4.28%, TMF bottom at 52.

• support level: 4.28%?
• short term yields show 2024 rate cut 3 times. first at June, second at September, third at December.

02-01: FED PRESS CONFERENCE

• hawkish, no rate cut at March.
• 10-year treasury yield increase from 3.8% to 4.0%, to 4.16% in the next day.

02-13: Core CPI rose 0.4%

• stagflation expectation is rising. TLT price plunged %1, 10-year treasury yield from 4.17% to 4.31%
• but soon Europe ressession made yield decrease 4.2%, market is waiting for 02-16's PPI data.

02-16: PPI show economy is hot

• PPI show economy is hot, Bonds yield surge 4.29%, TMF near 52.
• but soon move back to 4.28%, TMF looks like have a bottom at 52.