- Biden: Kill SEC's Crypto Accounting Policy, Ethereum ETFs, hiring a meme manager.
- Biden: Open war on hidden "junk fees" like airline and bank fees.
- Biden: Blind on Iran's sanctions, Iranian oil reaching Europe freely.
Biden can't tackle the INFLATION, so the path of least resistance is obvious: Do whaterver he can to get the votes, even though it's insignificant to solve the problem.
This is my learn note on the podcast. Follow me to get more. reference:
tk发了一条微博：“美国从红州限堕胎到到蓝州零元购，中国从《妇女儿童权益保护法》到医药集采，背后都是同一个原理。我在私下给一些朋友详细讲过这个政府第一性原理。可惜不能在这里说。但看了上面这四个仿佛完全扯不到一起去的例子，也许有人能自己想明白。想明白了这个原理，不仅能理解很多事情，也能预测很多事情。 ”
限制坠胎是Roe坠胎案被推翻，导致在联邦层面失去坠胎合法权 0元购是2014出的法案，盗窃950元以下商品等罪行从重罪降为轻罪，原因是加州等地方监狱人满为患
我的猜测是：这几个case都涉及到利益的再平衡，平衡就涉及到+和-，决策符合大多数人要求，但特别是0元购和坠胎案都广受诟病，坠胎案甚至一度让Republican掉了很多选票。是不是说涉及到复杂关系的时候，决策方永远选择短期阻力最小的路径去演化
The 401k is a dominant retirement plan in the U.S. This year, 4.1 million Americans turn 65 years old, but 49% of people aged 55-65 have nothing in their 401k account, and 10%-20% of retired people live in poverty. Why does the 401k not work as expected? And why is this a problem that will damage belief in the capitalist system?
Before the 401k, in the 50s to 70s, the U.S. had a pension system in the private sector. People would work in a company for 30 or more years, and the company would guarantee a fixed retirement income for the rest of their life. It worked well against the backdrop of lifetime employment and people not living as long as they do now.
The 401k came about by accident. It began when companies wanted to reward their executives, so they created a tax-deferred account to pay bonuses to their executives. The managers could get the money when they retired or left the company. There was a risk whether the IRS would tax the money, but in 1978, Congress passed a law to make it legal. That's how Section 401(k) came about. A retirement specialist, Ted Benna, found this law and used it to create a retirement plan for his company. He provided a matching contribution to his employees. If employees put money in the 401k account, the company would match the same amount of money. It was a win-win situation. The company got rid of the responsibility of the guaranteed pension system, and employees got extra money, tax benefits, and investment growth.
Why did the 401k become dominant in the U.S.? 1) The auto and steel industries declined, and a lot of corporations regarded pensions as a problem. 2) Reaganomics advocated individual responsibility, and the 401k shifted the responsibility from the employer to the employees.
Who can benefit from a 401k? Those who are high-income, disciplined, and have good investment knowledge. They don't need retirement money to live. But who falls out of the system? Those who are low-income, whose company didn't provide a 401k, or they didn't know how to invest, or they had to withdraw the money for an emergency.
The 401k reinforced income inequality. The rich get richer, of course, that tool was first designed for rich people. And normal people benefited from it due to government legislation. That is a common American model, normal people benefit from the elite's move. But the inequality still exists, millions of people falling through the cracks of the retirement system make the country driven toward socialism.
How to solve the problem? There is a plan called the Thrift Savings Plan. It's a retirement plan for federal employees, and Congress is considering expanding it to all Americans. When a company can't provide the matching contribution, the government will provide it.
Will it reduce income inequality? We still don't know, but one thing is clear, in the U.S., a comfortable retired life relies on the individual to make it happen. Retirement is a privilege, not a right.
This article is my learn note on the podcast. Follow me to get more. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/podcasts/the-daily/401k-retirement.html
I used to believe that if I keep learning, keep trying, I can live however I like, can be a brand new person. But now I have to admit that is wrong, I'm a person, my parents' son, Chinese, introverted. It's my nature.
I can't change myself, but I can make myself stronger, more resilient, more capable.
Democracies: The restraint of leaders in their rhetoric during heated elections is a key indicator. Autocracies: The ability to self-correct when wrong is crucial.
Scarce resources for person:
- Time
- Logic
- Information
And inflation is also drive by Svarcity, if resources are scarce, the price will rise. = money/product, In the long term, product increases drive the inflation down. so the monetary policy is the key dimension to control the inflation in the short term.
I'm shorting Bonds, waiting is so hard, especially face the loss. be patient, be rational!
When the U.S. manufacturing industry moved to Japan, Korea, China, lots of other jobs were created for people.
How will normal people live after AI replaces most of the jobs? That is an interesting question to investigate.
-
- How has the manufacturing industry changed in the past?
-
- Look at the current trend of AI replacing jobs
How will the U.S. Navy remove the collapsed bridge from the water? the bridge is so heavy that it can't be lifted by a crane. bomb it? that's a interesting engineering problem. the news is show they are planning to cut it into pieces and use multiple cranes to lift it. I will keep an eye on how they do it.
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-update-death-toll/60341894
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AA9mNVX6YEe5j_aKCT3pmQ
这本书主要说的是全球的人口老龄化导致一系列的危机，可能超出人的预期，这也是我们现在预期中国未来30年陷入日本化的主要论据
截至目前，它完全正确，但是它忽略了一个变量：ai robot， 人口老龄化的速度远远慢于ai在生产制造领域替代的速度。
对未来有没有信心，可以以现在为坐标，观察：
- 农业机械化智能化的升级速度，生产装备降价速度是否大于 劳动人口的下降速度。
- 工业生产领域的巨头增长速度，反应出来的，汽车，电子消费品，生活用品的价格下降速度
- 能源生产成本，光伏每度电的发电成本
据我观察，这些指标都在以肉眼可见的速度下降，很多gpt moment会不断涌现，短期我在实际押注的是特斯拉的 FSD GPT MOMENT, elon 说不是今年就是明年，我相信它.
通胀，通屁涨，准备迎接由生产力提升带来的优质通缩吧，美好的日子要来了.
FOMC Metting and Powell's dovish speech drive the stock market up. I guess it's low risk to hold stocks until 03/29 PCE data out.
NAR's settlement allowed NAR to pay $418 million to recent buyers and modify the rules to potentially reduce commission fees. This could lower housing costs and ease some inflation pressure.
TK教主在微博，如果遇到一个看起来很傻又不想反驳的人，就会盲转发：“盲猜关注列表的时候又到了”，我每次去点开看那个逻辑有些奇怪的人，其关注列表都会是：军事，搞笑，娱乐类的博主。
是长期关注这些导致了人的思维和逻辑封闭，还是思维和逻辑封闭的人才会长期关注这些？估计没一个准确答案，唯一能确信的是：信息的接收渠道，信息的选择，决定着一个人。
Be patient, don't do much, follow the rational plan. grow up steadily.
澎湃新闻：“近日，MIT团队将聚变反应堆的每瓦特成本几乎降低到了1/40，让核聚变技术在商用成为了可能。”
这个新闻说的是一个MIT团队在磁约束小型化上取得的验证成果，没有特别新的突破，
MIT在搞一个类似ITER的项目SPARC，磁约束上的区别是SPARC是高温超导，ITER是低温超导， SPARC小四倍
SPARC目标是商业化，这和ITER的基础研究目标不一样，目前看SPARC更有可能实现初步的核聚变。
Never give up，未来比想象更美好，更现实
ECB's interest rate cut will boost U.S. bonds and stocks.
However, U.S. bond yields may be massively changed by the CPI data on 03/12. be cautious.
Yesterday's PCE data showed a MoM of 0.4%, which was within expectations. The market has already priced in the hot CPI and PPI data, causing a decrease in bond yield. However, this doesn't mean inflation is over. A 0.4% increase over 12 months equates to 4.8% inflation. Will it cool down? We'll need to wait for the CPI data on 03/12.
invest strategy:
- hold stock until 03/12.
Btc, an attention-driven business, will peak in an economic ease cycle before declining. Eventually, it'll reach an attention limit, lose public interest, and fare worse than gold.
Despite high inflation expectations, Treasury bond yields are declining, possibly due to risk aversion-driven demand before PCE release. This is evident as the stock market drops and short-term yields rise back today, while long-term yields still fall.
TLT price ~= Treasury yield change
example: US 20-year treasury yield change from 4.4% to 4.3%,
- treasury yield change : 4.4 - 4.3 = 0.1, change =0.1/4.4 = 2.27%
- TLT price change ~= 2.27%
Let warring ways be banished from the world.
Let justice everywhere its carpet throw.
May Friendship reconcile ancient hatreds.
May Love grow from the seed of love we sow.
Forgive me, God, or whatever you are. Whether you forgive me or not, I don't care.
What I should do:
- Train, do my best to improve myself, no matter how hard it is, I can do it!
- Rest, this is part of training, do it!
- Create, build the list, finish the list!
I'm somewhat down today. A high amount of listening has made me not want to do anything. I'm tired!
I need some change.
Can't wait to announce that I'm a fans of the animated sitcom Family Guy.
What happens to guns that nobody wants any more?
In U.S. police departments, many firearms are kept from confiscations, buyback programs, and other sources. There are usually 2 ways to dispose of them:
- melt it down
- destroy it by blowtorch or sledgehammer
But what people commonly don't know is that a company called Gun Busters provides a free service. They will destroy the gun by just destroying one piece like the receiver or the frame (which is allowed by law). However, the problem is that the gun isn't fully destroyed. They also sell the materials to others, and these materials can be used to make new guns.
In just one second, a little boy lost his mother in Gaza. There are thousands of unseen tragedies in the war.
前几天我买了个森海赛尔的耳机，包头的，有线，原因是我的旧的森海塞尔有线接触不良，经常需要转一转插头到一个特定位置才能听到双声道。买包头的因为想隔绝环境音+不要漏音，买有线是觉得简单，不用充电，森海的音质也好。淘宝上一般三百多，有一家店只要159。
我觉得可能是有线的买的少了，有些要清库存就低价，于是我选择了159的，等了2天，满怀激动的心情我拆开了它，刺鼻的味道，不灵活的伸缩告诉我这可能是假货，于是我准备退货，但是我知道卖假货要退一赔三，我去找店家申请。他当然是不同意的，于是我曉之以情动之以礼，顺便淘宝投诉假货，他妥协了，退款，赔我一百五，加耳机送我。
于是我拿着赔偿款可以够一够next level的耳机了，看评测，发现舒适度排行第一的耳机Sony WH CH720n， 索尼的无线耳机xm4我买过，重，不舒适，降噪虽强但是极度不适应，所以出了，这个720号称是索尼最轻的包头耳机，于是我决定给他一个机会。
已经等了两三天了，我不想再等了，京东769次日达，淘宝海外自营679，2天后达 当然是选便宜的，本来下单了，看到了同城自提只有10km，又心痒了，没骑一会，大货车呼啸带过来的灰尘让我想起一句话：“不要花时间在低于自己时间价值的事情上”，一个闪送三十块，干嘛要自己去取。来都来了只能硬着头皮去继续骑，只能安慰自己我是在体验贫穷，好让我知道没钱是多么艰难。出了绕城，来到一片工地包围的写字楼，终于拿到了货。命运的齿轮开始转动，心情从最低谷开始上升。
轻，舒适，一路回家听完2集podcast，戴着骑车也不冷，这让我很是开心，支持同时连2个设备，好好好，折腾一番，戴着跑步，稳定，还是轻，比xm4好多了，第一次体验这样安静的环境，激情的音乐，纯粹的跑步。
事件就是这样的事件，我觉得很有意思，第一次打假维权，买到超过期望的耳机，不用担心图书馆空调噪声等了。但是我喜欢强行总结点感悟，那就感悟点吧，不要花时间在低于自己时间价值的事情上面，但是花了好像也没那么糟。还是多折腾，多改变重要，总是会有惊喜。
Just came back from the New Year's Countdown Activity. 2023 is gone, the past year is full of loving memories. Thanks to all the people who have come into my life, with your love, I have the courage to face the unknown future. I love you all.
In 2024, I will do my best to love, love my family, love myself, love my friends, love the world.